Familiar faces line up under center when the New York Jets host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season.
New Pittsburgh passer Aaron Rodgers goes against his former team, while New York quarterback Justin Fields stares down the defense he practiced against every day in 2024.
Which team has the inside edge when it comes to these QBs? I find out with my early Steelers vs. Jets predictions and NFL picks for September 7.
Steelers vs Jets predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Steelers vs Jets spread pick: Steelers -2.5 (-115)
This Week 1 spread has come down from a field goal since being posted in the spring. Some bookmakers are still dealing Pittsburgh Steelers -3 as we head into game week, but you can find this below the key number if you shop around.
I think there is value in the New York Jets this season, but this may not be the game. Pittsburgh proved it could be competitive solely on the back of its defense in 2024 and now takes on a former QB who struggled under pressure, facing a foe who has endless amounts of tape on his strengths and weaknesses.
Rodgers is well past his expiration date but is the better quarterback in this matchup. He’ll likely need some help from the defense to get the job done, given New York’s stop unit and its improvements.
A last-second field goal seems about right in an ugly, low-scoring game.
Early Steelers vs Jets total pick: Under 37.5 (-105)
There’s nothing about this Week 1 pairing that leads me to bet the Over.
The Steelers defense is always a handful, and this pass rush will have Fields on the move most dropbacks. The Jets are already employing a basic, quick-hitting attack under new OC Tanner Engstrand, which won’t get anything extra from a disciplined Pittsburgh defense that doesn’t miss tackles.
As for the Jets defense, it will be improved under new head coach Aaron Glenn. New York has plenty of pieces to be a Top 10 stop unit again, just a jolt of chaos from Glenn’s blitz-happy schemes.
Rodgers is running this new offense for the first time at full speed, and beyond DK Metcalf, the skill positions offer fewer threats. Arthur Smith’s attack failed to score more than 20 points in nine games last season and this total doesn’t have high hopes for Week 1.
Mike Tomlin’s teams are 6-11 Over/Under in Week 1 since he took over as head coach in 2008. Week 1 totals of 38.5 points or shorter have stayed Under at a 59% clip since 2000, including a 0-4 O/U count since 2019.
Steelers vs Jets odds
- Steelers vs. Jets spread: Jets +3
- Steelers vs. Jets moneyline: Steelers -155, Jets +130
- Steelers vs. Jets Over/Under: 38.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
