The road to Super Bowl LX has narrowed to four battle-tested teams.
In the AFC, the top-seeded Denver Broncos are bracing for a Mile High heavyweight bout against the New England Patriots, but there’s a massive twist: with Bo Nix sidelined, it’s Jarrett Stidham’s turn to duel New England’s breakout star, Drake Maye.
Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest is prepping for a noise-meter-breaking rematch. The Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams in an all-NFC West clash that promises fireworks after their regular-season overtime thriller.
We’ve crunched the numbers, simulated the matchups, and identified the sharpest edges on the board using our AI-powered Covers Predictions tool. Whether you’re looking for a lock or a live underdog, our NFL picks have you covered.
NFL Conference Championship picks
| Matchup | Spread | ML | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
 @  |
-4.5 |
|
u42.5 |
 @  |
+3.0 |
|
o47 |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel.
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AFC Conference Championship: Patriots vs Broncos
In a matchup featuring two 14-3 powerhouses, the oddsmakers are leaning toward the surging Patriots. New England enters Mile High on the back of a dominant regular season where it finished No. 3 in Total Offense (379.4 yards per game). Sophomore sensation Drake Maye has revitalized the franchise, leading an air attack that ranks fourth in passing yards.
The QB situation in Denver is considerably less rosy. Bo Nix’s season-ending ankle fracture forces Jarrett Stidham into a historic spotlight. Stidham becomes the first quarterback ever to start a Conference Championship without a single regular-season pass attempt. While Denver loses Nix’s dual-threat playmaking, Sean Payton is banking on Stidham’s veteran poise to steady the offense. To win, the Broncos must now rely on their league-leading defense to stifle Maye and mask Stidham’s inevitable rust.
Denver’s D finished the season ranked No. 2 in Total Defense, allowing a stingy 278.2 yards per game. While New England is favored, they are 1-4 all-time in postseason games at Denver. Expect a defensive slugfest as Denver’s Top 2 rushing defense (91.1 yards allowed) will look to neutralize Rhamondre Stevenson. With both teams ranking in the Top 4 for scoring defense, the Under 42.5 is the sharp play here.
View our Patriots vs. Broncos matchup hub for more stats and analysis prior to kickoff
NFC Conference Championship: Rams vs Seahawks
This NFC West trilogy capstone is the definition of a "toss-up." The Seahawks (14-3) hold the home-field advantage and the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL. But the Rams (12-5) arrive with the league’s No. 1 Total Offense (394.6 yards per game). Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua have been nearly unstoppable, helping L.A. lead the league in passing yards (268.1 per game).
The season series was split 1-1, with the most recent meeting being a 38-37 overtime thriller in Seattle in which Sam Darnold threw for 270 yards but was picked off twice. While the Seahawks’ defense is elite, the Rams have proven they can score on anyone, putting up 34 and 20 points in their two playoff wins against the Panthers and Bears so far.
We like the Rams to cover the +3.0 and potentially pull the upset in a high-scoring affair that clears the 47 total.
Check out our Rams vs. Seahawks matchup hub before game time.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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