Seahawks vs 49ers Wild Card Props: Can't Stop Deebo From Eating

Taking fewer snaps in the backfield, Deebo Samuel has mostly returned to his natural wideout position and should get plenty of opportunity to go Over his 40.5-yard receiving total on Saturday. Read more in our Seahawks vs. 49ers Wild Card prop picks below.

Last Updated: Jan 14, 2023 1:36 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers meet for a third time this season when the NFL playoffs open with the NFC Wild Card Round on Saturday afternoon.

San Francisco won both regular season matchups with Seattle and is a hefty point spread favorite in this postseason edition of the NFC West rivalry.

We put the spread and total on the back burner for this 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff and concentrate on the popular NFL prop bets for Saturday’s showdown. Here are my best NFL prop picks and predictions for Seahawks at 49ers on January 14.

Be sure to also check out Sam Farley's Seahawks vs 49ers Wild Card picks and predictions!

Seahawks vs 49ers Wild Card prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Seahawks vs 49ers Wild Card props

A big part of Seattle’s success this year is the emergence of rookie running back Kenneth Walker III, who has firmly been planted at the core of this Seahawks attack.

Walker has been the RB1 for Seattle since Week 6, giving this offense a consistent threat on the ground and a nice balance in play calling. Walker has been busy in his first season in the pros, averaging 18.6 rushing attempts per game over his last 11 outings.

That workload spiked in the final three games of the year, with Walker carrying the ball 26, 23, and 29 times, rushing for a collective 354 yards in those contests. His rushing prowess gets put to the test in the Wild Card Round, facing a San Francisco 49ers defense ranked No. 2 in DVOA when it comes to stuffing the run.

Walker didn’t have great results in his first two go-arounds with the Niners, getting only four carries for 10 yards in Week 2 but more notably just 12 rushes for 49 yards in the 21-13 loss in Week 15. 

However, that drop in usage was due to a few factors such as an ankle injury that cost him the Week 14 game, the Thursday night kickoff not giving Walker ample recovery time, and a 21-3 lead from San Francisco that forced Seattle to abandon the run in the second half.

Given the big spread for Saturday, the game script says the Seahawks could again find themselves playing from behind. But according to head coach Pete Carroll, who is never shy about running the ball, the forecast for Saturday’s game – calling for rain and wind in Santa Clara – could see the Seahawks leaning even more on Walker.

“With the cyclone threatening down there, we may need to run the ball 40 times, 50 times, whatever," Carroll told The Seattle Times. “We'll see how that goes. It's huge for us to make that statement... we've been coming and you can really see Kenneth getting together with the guys up front. The rhythm looks way better than it did. And that's just time, and we have to take some lumps along the way. Fortunately, we're getting going." 

The rookie RB has a rushing attempts prop of 16.5 which seems easily attainable considering his current workload and Carroll’s comments heading into a wet and wild weekend. 

Kenneth Walker III Prop: Over 16.5 rushing attempts (-105)

Deebo Samuel has been known to bully would-be tacklers just like the big bad from Friday, played by the late and scary-as-hell Tiny Lister Jr.

Samuel is a handful either in the receiving or running game, with Kyle Shanahan just finding ways to get the ball in the hands of his best playmaker. Deebo finished 13th in the league in yards after the catch (YAC) — despite missing five full games — and could have a massive day picking up gains after the grab versus this Seahawks defense.

Seattle has allowed the fourth-most YAC in the NFL and with the Santa Clara forecast calling for rain and winds Saturday afternoon, the 49ers will look to short shots in the passing game and let Deebo do his thing after the catch.

Samuel missed three games at the end of the season due to ankle and knee injuries suffered in Week 14, including skipping the meeting with Seattle in Week 15. He returned for two catches on three targets for 20 yards vs. Arizona in Week 18, but the Niners only threw the ball 20 times in that one-sided win. 

As mentioned, Deebo missed the most recent meeting with Seattle but did catch five of six targets for 44 yards against the Seahawks in Week 2 — a tempered receiving result considering his role in the running game at the time (rushed for 53 yards on four carries). 

These days, Shanahan has a surplus of rushing options in the backfield and Samuel is featured far less as a runner and more at his true position. He took 11 snaps in the backfield in that first game vs. the Seahawks but has watched his backfield appearances dwindle in the second half of the season, sliming his carries while his receiving targets have ticked up.

In his one appearance vs. the Seahawks in 2021, Samuel snagged eight of 13 balls his way for a monster 156-yard, two-touchdown performance last October. We’re not asking Deebo to do that, but he will be able to bully his way past his modest receiving yards total in the Wild Card Round.

Deebo Samuel Prop: Over 40.5 receiving yards (-125)

Towering Seahawks tight end Colby Parkinson could be quite busy on Saturday afternoon. With fellow TE Noah Fant nursing a knee injury that has limited his practice reps, Parkinson will continue to play a bigger role in the Seahawks' offense in the Wild Card Round. 

He's drawn 14 targets for 10 receptions over the past three games, totaling 128 yards receiving in that span — a huge increase from the 15 receptions posted in his previous 11 games.

Parkinson’s snap counts have surged in the last two outings, playing a total of 69 and 71 offensive snaps which is almost double his season average. He’s owned a snap rate of 81% and 79% in the past two contests vs. 62% and 64% from Fant in those games.

Given the forecast calling for winds and rain, the 49ers’ ferocious pass rush, and a big spread which writes a game script of Seattle playing from behind and pushing the pass, Parkinson could be Geno Smith’s release valve in the short passing game. 

We saw Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron have success with the tight end position in their Week 15 loss to San Francisco, with Fant hauling in five of six targets for 32 yards. He also caught a 10-yard touchdown on a seam route out of the slot late in the fourth quarter.

But with Fant questionable with the bum knee and Parkinson excelling in his place, there’s great value taking the Over 2.5 receptions from the massive 6-foot-7 tight end out of Stanford. 

Colby Parkinson Prop: Over 2.5 receptions (+140)

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