Ravens vs Saints Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Lamar Leans on Devin Duvernay

A non-conference clash takes the primetime stage in NFL Week 9 odds with the Baltimore Ravens coming to the Big Easy to battle the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football.

Baltimore opened as a field goal favorite in New Orleans but with injuries on the offensive side of the ball, the NFL odds for this spread has slimmed to as low as Ravens -1. 

The Saints know a thing or two about playing through pain, having been plagued by injuries in the first half of the season. Despite many missing skill players, New Orleans has produced points and is coming off a stellar two-way performance in a shutout win last week.

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Ravens vs. Saints on November 7.

Also: Check out our free MNF player prop bets and our Alvin Kamara prop picks for the final Week 9 contest.

Ravens vs Saints best odds

Ravens vs Saints picks and predictions

If you check out my weekly NFL Underdogs column, you’ll see I took the points with the New Orleans Saints earlier in the week at +3, but with this spread on the move, the best of the number is gone. If you aren’t marching with the Saints, then this player prop is for you.

With Lamar Jackson’s two top targets likely out of action (and possibly WR Demarcus Robinson as well) and the Saints' run defense looking to lock down a hampered Baltimore ground game, receiver Devin Duvernay steps up as a key member of this Baltimore Ravens offense Monday night.

Duvernay enters Week 9 with a receiving yards total set as low as 43.5 yards but will likely see an increase in snaps and targets against the Saints, simply due to the fact that Baltimore is running low on receiving options.

Duvernay is averaging about 39 yards through the air per game and has gone Over his receiving yards prop in five of eight games this season, despite some lower target totals. His tallest yardage prop total was 40.5 yards in Week 5 and Week 6 and his last two prop numbers were 35.5 yards. 

This slight bump to 43.5 yards O/U vs. NOLA doesn’t reflect the potential uptick in activity Duvernay will draw with those other guys out. And if New Orleans can stymie the Ravens’ run game, Jackson may have no choice but to let it fly on Monday night.

The 5-foot-11 speedster is versatile and bounces from the outside to the slot, offering quick hits and yards after the catch as well as a deeper threat. Duvernay showed that explosiveness with a 31-yard diving catch against the Browns in Week 7 and now comes to the fast indoor track of the Superdome.

The Saints’ defense is notoriously stingy against the run, but its passing defense ranks out 17th in EPA allowed per dropback and will be without shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore, who would have drawn Duvernay in coverage.

In my opinion, Duvernay’s current yardage Over/Under prop doesn’t accurately reflect how much he’ll be counted on Monday night. This prop is as high as 46.5 yards at some books, so shop for the lowest number you can find.

My best bet: Devin Duvernay Over 43.5 receiving yards (-120)

Ravens vs Saints spread analysis

The look-ahead line last week listed the Ravens as big as 4-point road chalk after beating Tampa Bay on Thursday in Week 8 and enjoying a mini-bye because of the schedule. However, with injuries stacking up on the offense, this spread trimmed from its official opener of -3 to -2.5.

Sunday morning, it was reported that RB Gus Edwards and TE Mark Andrews were doubtful for Monday, coming on the heels of news that WR1 Rashod Bateman would miss the rest of the season due to injury. That leaves Baltimore without its three top weapons on offense and dropped this spread to as low as Ravens -1 at some respected online books.

New Orleans looked great on both sides of the ball in Week 8, blanking Las Vegas 24-0 for just its second win in the past seven games. The Saints’ depth chart has been banged up most of the year but keeps producing points. The offense has scored 24 points or more in five straight games, ranking out No. 7 in EPA per play since Week 4.

WynnBET is reporting an interesting split in action, with 65% of bet count on Baltimore but more than 77% of money backing NOLA at home Monday night.

Ravens vs Saints Over/Under analysis

The official Week 9 Over/Under opened at 48 points on Sunday night and has since slimmed to as low as 46.5 points, with those injuries to the Ravens’ skill positions. 

Baltimore already ran one of the slowest offensive paces in the NFL – sitting second in seconds per play – and its run-heavy offense now goes up against a New Orleans run-stop unit that has been elite year in and year out. The Saints own the lowest EPA per handoff allowed in the league entering Week 9.

The Ravens' defense beefed up its roster at the trade deadline by adding NFL-leading tackler Roquon Smith in a deal with Chicago, hoping the linebacker can spark a unit that has underperformed in its first year under coordinator Mike MacDonald. Baltimore enters Week 9 ranking 17th in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and 27th in EPA allowed per play on the year. 

New Orleans has produced a 5-3 O/U count in 2022, while Baltimore sits 3-5 O/U. WynnBET books are reporting 55% of bets on the Under which has also garnered 80% of the money wagered on the total. 

Ravens vs Saints betting trend to know

The Under is 13-6 in Baltimore's last 19 road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Saints.

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