The Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys clash in Brazil on Sunday in Week 3 action, and I've pinpointed my best anytime touchdown picks for this highly anticipated contest.
Derrick Henry and CeeDee Lamb highlight my best bets, followed by two other players.
Read it all in my NFL picks for Sept. 27.
Best Ravens vs Cowboys anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Lamar Jackson anytime TD |
31% |
 CeeDee Lamb anytime TD |
43% |
| First TD: Derrick Henry |
20% |
| Long shot TD: Ryan Flournoy |
18% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Ravens touchdown pick: Lamar Jackson
Play up to 35%.
Lamar Jackson has only found the end zone once on the ground through two games, but the matchup gives him a strong opportunity to add another in Rio. Jackson has 11 carries for 74 yards and a rushing touchdown, with that score coming from five yards out in Week 1.
Dallas has struggled to contain quarterbacks on the ground. Jaxson Dart and Jayden Daniels combined for 123 rushing yards against the Cowboys, who have allowed an NFL-high 126 QB rushing yards on 19 attempts (6.6 YPC) through two weeks.
With Dallas struggling against the run, Jackson's scrambling ability and designed-run involvement give him a legitimate path to the end zone. He also scored two TDs across the last two meetings with the Cowboys.
Cowboys touchdown pick: CeeDee Lamb
Play up to 50%.
CeeDee Lamb is off to a tremendous start, and he’s clearly remained Dak Prescott’s top scoring threat. The wideout has already hauled in three touchdowns on 13 receptions for 197 yards through two games, including two scores in last week’s win over Washington.
More importantly for this market, five of Lamb’s receptions have come inside the 20-yard line, showing that Prescott is consistently looking his way when Dallas gets into scoring position.
Baltimore hasn’t been particularly stout in that area, either. The Ravens have allowed touchdowns on 80% of opponents’ red-zone trips through two games, albeit in a small sample.
With Lamb commanding premium opportunities near the goal line, 43% is a reasonable price for him to find the end zone again.
First touchdown scorer pick: Derrick Henry
Play up to 25%.
Derrick Henry is already off to a blazing start this season, averaging 5.3 YPC for an NFL-best four rushing touchdowns.
He’ll face a vulnerable Cowboys defense that is dead last in rushing yards allowed, giving up 173.5 per contest.
Henry scored the opening TD in Week 2 despite the loss to the New Orleans Saints, and while this is a more obscure statistic, the RB has scored the first touchdown in three of Baltimore’s last four games against NFC teams.
Also, three of Henry’s four scores have come from inside the red zone.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Ryan Flournoy
Ryan Flournoy has been consistently involved in the Cowboys’ offense through two games. He has seven catches for 45 yards while playing 73% of Dallas’ offensive snaps, giving him a legitimate role despite not finding the end zone yet.
The wideout caught five passes in Week 2, and although he hasn’t seen a red-zone target through two games, his usage makes him an intriguing longshot at 18%.
With Lamb and George Pickens likely commanding most of Baltimore’s defensive attention, Flournoy could benefit from softer coverage and sneak into the end zone at a great price.
Ravens vs Cowboys touchdown combo
CeeDee Lamb anytime TD
Derrick Henry first TD
This combo pairs two of the strongest touchdown angles in Sunday's matchup. Lamb has been Prescott’s top red-zone weapon, with consistent work in scoring areas.
Henry, meanwhile, continues to dominate Baltimore’s run game, with 10 red-zone carries, and his physicality is always a benefit when the Ravens are getting close to the end zone.
Dallas has struggled against the run, which gives Henry a legitimate chance to open the scoring, while Baltimore’s shaky red-zone defense creates another favorable setup for Lamb.
At 3.25x, combining Henry’s goal-line role with Lamb’s heavy usage gives this combo a realistic path to cashing.
- TD picks: 0-0
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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