Raiders vs Chargers Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Vegas Crashes L.A.'s Victory Party

Las Vegas is surprisingly off to an undefeated start, and LA just beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead! One of these teams is primed for a letdown spot, and our Raiders vs Chargers picks dives into who that will be — and what the best bets are in this MNF matchup.

Last Updated: Oct 4, 2021 11:17 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Las Vegas Raiders take a perfect 3-0 record back to their old stomping grounds in California when they battle the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football.

Before the season starter, this didn't have the feel of a sexy MNF matchup, but here we are: With the Raiders unbeaten and the Bolts coming off a big win against the Chiefs, it has become a can't-miss game for Week 4.

Oddsmakers don't expect the Raiders' winning streak to continue, with NFL betting lines installing the Chargers as 3-point home favorites.  

Here are our best free Raiders vs. Chargers picks and predictions for October 4.

Raiders vs Chargers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The line for this game opened with the Chargers as -3 favorites with the Over/Under at 52.5. While the spread hasn't shifted as of 2 p.m. ET on Thursday, money has come in on the Under, dropping the total to 51.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Raiders vs Chargers picks

Picks made on 9/30/2021 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Raiders vs Chargers bonuses

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Raiders vs Chargers game info

Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Date: Monday, October 4, 2021
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Raiders at Chargers betting preview


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.

Key injuries

Raiders: Jackson Barton OT (Out), Nick Bowers TE (Out), Malcolm Koonce DE (Out), Damion Square DT (Out), Richie Incognito G (Out), Gerald McCoy DT (Out).
Chargers: Chris Harris Jr. CB (Out), Bryan Bulaga OT (Out), Brenden Jaimes OT (Out), Joshua Kelley RB (Out), Tre' McKitty TE (Out), Easton Stick QB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 7-1 in the Raiders' last eight games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Chargers.

Raiders vs Chargers predictions

The Raiders are coming off a 31-28 overtime win over the Dolphins, giving them their second OT win of the year after a 33-27 victory against the Ravens in Week 1. 

The Chargers bounced back from a last-second loss to the Cowboys in Week 2 by beating the Chiefs 30-24 last week. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert was the hero in that contest, completing 68.4 percent of his passes for 281 yards and four touchdowns. Although Herbert is listed as questionable for Monday after hitting his hand on the helmet of a Chiefs defender, all reports indicate that he'll be good to go. 

Both of these teams have very good passing games. Herbert threw for 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns as a rookie last year and looks like an MVP candidate in 2021, while Raiders veteran Derek Carr is at the helm of an offense that leads the league with 379.7 passing yards per game.

This game will likely come down to defense, and which team can be balanced on offense. Neither squad has been particularly efficient at running the ball, but Peyton Barber rumbled for 111 yards with Josh Jacobs sidelined last week, and now they (Jacobs is returning for the Monday nighter) go up against a Chargers team that ranks 31st in the league in defensive rushing DVOA. 

The Raiders have shown improvement on the defensive side of the ball, with former Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley bringing pressure from a variety of spots. Las Vegas ranks 11th in the league in defensive DVOA while allowing the ninth-fewest yards per play.  

The Chargers are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite, while the Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their previous six contests when catching points. 

It's also worth mentioning that the underdog is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings between these teams, so taking the points in this rivalry matchup makes sense. Expect the Chargers to have a bit of a letdown performance after that emotional victory last week and fade them on the spread. 

Both of these teams have been very pass-dominant this season, with the Chargers passing the ball on 65.2 percent of all offensive plays and the Raiders having a passing play percentage of 64. That means not a whole lot of game-clock sapping running plays from either side. 

Carr is averaging 401 passing yards per game, and while tight end Darren Waller has been his favorite target, he has spread the ball out with four different players totaling over 200 yards receiving. That sort of ball distribution is tough for any secondary to contain, especially one that might be missing its top cover man, Chris Harris Jr., for the third-straight week.

Herbert has also been torching teams through the air with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen giving the Bolts a pair of dangerous pass-catchers on the outside. The Raiders are holding opposing QBs to just 5.9 yards per pass attempt, but they haven't really been tested through the air so far this season, going up against Lamar Jackson, Ben Roethlisberger, and Jacoby Brisset. 

There are definitely more question marks on defense than on offense for both of these teams. With the Raiders going  7-1 O/U in their last eight games, back the Over again on Monday night. 

Raiders Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller had 10 catches (on a staggering 19 targets) for 105 yards in Week 1 and while he has regressed a bit over the last two games, he still averaged 59.5 receiving yards on five catches during those contests. 

Now, he faces a Chargers defense that gave up 104 yards on seven catches to Chiefs TE Travis Kelce last week. Waller also had nine receptions for 150 yards against the Chargers when these AFC West rivals previously met up last December. 

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