Two teams with legit Super Bowl aspirations will square off Sunday night in Kansas City as the Chiefs will host the Detroit Lions.
SNF props for Lions vs. Chiefs are available to bet on now at the best NFL betting sites. We will highlight some of the top player projections for Detroit vs. Kansas City below.
Our computer projects big nights from Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta. See more computer projections of key players below.
Lions vs Chiefs computer picks for Sunday Night Football
 Lions |
 Chiefs |
|---|---|
| Goff o1.5 passing TDs -136 | Mahomes u261.5 passing yards -115 |
| Gibbs u70.5 rushing yards -114 | Pacheco o32.5 rushing yards -110 |
| St. Brown o68.5 receiving yards -115 | Pacheco o1.5 receptions -175 |
| LaPorta o39.5 receiving yards -115 | Kelce u44.5 receiving yards -114 |
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Lions SNF computer picks
JARED GOFF OVER 1.5 PASSING TDS (-136)
Projection: 1.65 passing TDs
The Lions are close to the middle of the pack when it comes to passing yardage, but their offense leads the NFL in points per game. Detroit is scoring at an impressive 34.8 ppg clip.
This means that they capitalize on their red zone opportunities. The Lions score a touchdown 76% of the time they reach the red zone. That’s the third-best mark in the NFL.
The computer and I both like Goff to throw multiple TDs against KC.
Alternate-total bet
3+ TD passes (+297): Solid value. In two of five games this season, Goff has thrown 3 TDs or more.
JAHMYR GIBBS UNDER 70.5 YARDS (-114)
Projection: 62.0 rushing yards
Gibbs has rushed for Over 70 yards in just two of five games to start the season. He has not cracked the 100-yard mark in any game this season.
The Kansas City defense, meanwhile, has done a nice job of silencing top NFL RBs this season. The unit held Travis Etienne to 49 yards on the ground, Derrick Henry to 42 yards rushing, and Omarion Hampton to 48 yards.
KC has not yet allowed a 100-yard rusher entering Week 6.
The computer and I are on the same page again. We’ll take the Under on Gibbs.
AMON-RA ST. BROWN OVER 68.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Projection: 78.3 receiving yards
I don’t like St. Brown to have a monster game against the Chiefs, but Over 68.5 yards receiving should be doable.
The Kansas City defense has already allowed top receivers like Brian Thomas, Zay Flowers, and Ladd McConkey to pop for 70+ receiving yards this season.
I like Amon-Ra to accomplish that feat here, and so does my computer pal.
SAM LAPORTA OVER 39.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115)
Projection: 44.9 receiving yards
The Chiefs' defense has done a fabulous job on tight ends.
It held Mark Andrews to 30 yards receiving, Theo Johnson to 10 yards receiving, and Brenton Strange to 22 yards receiving. In KC’s game against the Eagles, the unit surrendered just two catches for 11 yards against Philadelphia TEs.
LaPorta is an excellent player, but 39.5 yards is a lot to ask against a Steve Spagnuolo defense.
I’ll go against my robotic friend and take the Under.
More Sunday Night Football picks from Covers
Chiefs SNF computer picks
PATRICK MAHOMES UNDER 261.5 PASSING YARDS
Projection: 240.9 passing yards
Detroit's defense has allowed just 206 yards passing per game so far this season. That’s good for 12th best in the NFL.
However, the quality of quarterbacks the Lions have faced is lacking. They’ve been able to pad their stats over the past two weeks, facing both Jake Browning and Joe Flacco.
The last top-shelf QB they matched up against was Lamar Jackson in Week 3, and he threw for 288 yards and three TDs.
I like Mahomes to have similar numbers in a game where Andy Reid will likely let him throw the ball 35+ times. The computer disagrees and is taking the Under.
ISIAH PACHECO OVER 32.5 RUSHING YARDS (-110)
Projection: 32.9 rushing yards
Pacheco just isn’t getting enough carries these days for me to trust him to rush for 33 yards or more. This past week against Jacksonville, he carried the ball seven times for 36 yards.
Kareem Hunt also had seven carries but was more productive, rushing for 49 yards, while Mahomes led the Chiefs with 60 yards on the ground.
It seems like the days of Pacheco getting 10+ carries per game are over.
The computer likes Pacheco to go Over, but I’ll err on the side of caution and take the Under.
ISIAH PACHECO OVER 1.5 RECEPTIONS (-175)
Projection: 1.9 receptions
While Pacheco has been underwhelming in the run game, there have been signs of life in the passing game. In each of the past two weeks, he has been targeted three times.
Last week in Jacksonville, he caught three balls for 20 yards. The week prior against Baltimore, Pacheco had a receiving touchdown.
Kansas City’s offense works best when its RBs are involved in the passing game, and I like this trend to continue. I agree with our AI here and will take the Over 1.5 receptions.
Alternate-total bet
Pacheco 3+ catches (+350): Solid value here for only three catches.
TRAVIS KELCE UNDER 44.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-114)
Projection: 35.1 receiving yards
Old Man Kelce is still putting up numbers. He’s averaging 48.6 receiving yards per game this season, and he had seven catches for 61 yards and a TD this past Monday against the Jags.
Mahomes still trusts Kelce far more than anyone else in this offense, and I think he’ll continue to look his way against a quality defense.
Give me Over 44.5 Kelce receiving yards. My computer buddy projects him to go Under, finishing with 35.1 yards.
Not intended for use in MA.
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