Isn’t it funny how some songs speak to you, no matter what’s going on in your life? The same tune could echo truth if you’re in a rocky relationship, stressed about your place in life, or — in my case — on a bit of an NFL betting slump.
That song is Elton John’s 1983 banger “I Guess That’s Why They Call It The Blues”, which came on the radio as I drove to the grocery store lamenting a 1-5 ATS skid with my weekly NFL Underdogs point spread picks.
Things were going pretty well, taking an 18-9 ATS mark into Week 10 when… BAM! – sports betting’s version of a doldrums Sir Elton eloquently sang about so many giant pairs of sunglasses ago. But like most songs that speak to us, there is condolence and salvation in the lyrics:
“Don't wish it away
Don't look at it like it's forever
Between you and me I can honestly say
That things will only get better.”
Thanks, Elton. Things will only get better — starting in Week 12, which has oodles of tight spreads (only one spread of a touchdown or more) and plenty of pups with bite (eight teams at .500 or better catching points).
In honor of Sir Elton Hercules John and that wise sports wagering advice (I’m sure that’s what was on Bernie Taupin's mind when he wrote the song), we gain inspiration from his rich catalog for our NFL Underdogs Week 12 free NFL picks. And no, “Benny and the Jets” will not be among them.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 12
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) pick
This non-conference clash gives us the classic “unstoppable force vs. immovable object” dilemma, with Colts battering ram running back Jonathan Taylor taking on the Bucs’ vaunted run defense.
While I’m sure it won’t make the pregame hype playlist, “I’m Still Standing” should be blaring across the loudspeakers inside Lucas Oil Field this Sunday, more specifically this verse:
“Once I never could have hoped to win
You're starting down the road leaving me again
The threats you made were meant to cut me down
And if our love was just a circus, you'd be a clown by now”
Tampa Bay is starting down the road again in Indy and hasn’t played its best football away from the pirate ship, going just 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a visitor this season.
The Buccaneers' mighty defense has given up +0.450 points per play to host teams (29th in the NFL) and budged for some of their worst efforts stuffing the run, allowing ground gains of 94, 100, and 152 yards in their last three roadies.
Enter Taylor and this Colts offensive line, which ranks fifth in adjusted line yards and No. 2 in second-level yards with a league-leading EPA per rush of +0.064 – head and shoulders above all other running attacks. Taylor is a dynamic runner who can beat you with his feet or plow through with his power, ranking second in yards after contact (3.1) and third in broken tackles.
The Bucs are playing on a short week after thumping the listless Giants at home on Monday night and may not be the defense that makes the difference in this Week 12 clash.
Tom Brady has thrown five interceptions in his last three games and goes up against an opportunistic Colts stop unit that leads the NFL in takeaways (25), including 13 INTs. That defense just made Brady’s fellow MVP frontrunner, Josh Allen, look like a clown, limiting him to 209 yards with two picks in Week 11.
The Colts are up to +3.5 (-115) at DraftKings as of this writing and most shops are dealing Indianapolis +3 (-105), so that half-point hook is coming if you can’t shop for it.
PICK: Indianapolis +3.5 (-115)
Tennessee Titans (+7) at New England Patriots pick
“It's sad, so sad
It's a sad, sad situation
And it's gettin' more and more absurd”
The Titans’ upset loss to Houston was pretty damn sad and absurd, considering this team had just walked through hell and back on a six-game winning streak that featured five teams that qualified for the postseason last year.
That loss — and the Patriots’ run to the top of the AFC East standings — has the markets going bonkers, with Tennessee now as big as a touchdown underdog in New England this Sunday. The Titans do have some injury concerns on both sides of the ball, but this swing is just too much (opened Pats -5.5).
New England is playing beyond expectations, winning five straight, but those wins came against some flawed opponents, especially the last three blowout victories. The Patriots have outscored Carolina (Darnold at QB), Cleveland (no Chubb, zombie Baker), and Atlanta (it’s f-ing Atlanta) by a combined count of 94-13.
On top of that, a nasty look-ahead spot lines up for Mac and the Pats this weekend — they could get caught thinking about a massive divisional showdown with the Buffalo Bills on Monday night in Week 13.
The Titans offense is a patchwork group right now but the defense is not nearly getting the love it should, with Tennessee sitting ninth in EPA allowed per play (-0.039) since Week 5. Shane Bowen’s group is among the best stop units on third downs (10th overall and 34.09% L3 games), ranks 11th in red-zone touchdown percentage, and is getting to the quarterback with 27 sacks on the season.
What do the Titans do to make you love them?
This total is one of the lowest of the week (43.5 O/U) and it sounds like Tennessee is more than happy to turn this into a defensive grinder, keeping the New England offense in front of it for short gains, which could keep points at a premium and help the Titans stay inside the TD spread.
According to Elton, “sorry seems to be the hardest word” and I don't want to be sorry for passing on all those points with Tennessee when this one is said and done.
PICK: Tennessee +7 (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+5) at Cincinnati Bengals pick
The power struggle in the AFC North has been fun (and sometimes painful) to watch this season, as the gatekeepers of the division — the Pittsburgh Steelers — fight to stay relevant among the new blood in the north, such as Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
At 5-4-1 SU and coming off a Sunday night road loss in L.A., Pittsburgh fans are finally wondering, “when are you gonna come down? When are you going to land?” after years of dominance. And it would seem books and bettors are humming the tune to “Goodbye Yellow (and Black) Brick Road”, with Pittsburgh climbing as high as +5 at Cincinnati this Sunday.
Well, I’m not singing along.
There’s plenty of fight left in the Steelers, especially with head coach Mike Tomlin telling the media he expects defensive pillars T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Joe Haden on the field in Week 12 after the trio was dearly missed in last week’s loss to the Chargers.
On the other side of the ball, we’ve seen life from this Pittsburgh playbook. Scratch Mason Rudolph’s soggy start versus Detroit in Week 10, and the Steelers bookended that tie game with point totals of 29 and 37 against the Bears and Bolts — their two biggest outputs of the season.
As for the Bengals, they may have snapped a two-game skid with a win in Las Vegas last weekend, but that 32-13 final score doesn’t really tell the story. Cincinnati was by no means in control of that game (only 4.1 yards per play — fifth lowest in Week 11) and held just a three-point lead at the 11:42 mark of the fourth quarter, then a bad turnover and 27-yard penalty from the Raiders broke Vegas’ back and opened the flood gates for 16 more points.
The Cincy defense has been slipping since Week 8. It ranked No. 5 in EPA allowed per play (-0.051) in the first seven games but has since fallen to 25th (+0.050) over the past three outings. It may have knocked off Pittsburgh 24-10 in Heinz Field back in Week 3, but a lot has changed since then.
If Burrow and the Bengals want to be the kings of the AFC North, they’ll have to fight for it. And the Steelers won’t give that throne away easily. Under Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 20-9-1 ATS versus Cincinnati, 10-4-1 ATS inside Paul Brown Stadium (4-1 ATS as dogs in those games), and 16-5-2 ATS as an underdog in a divisional contest since 2007.
PICK: Pittsburgh +5 (-110)
Last week: 0-3 ATS -3.00 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 19-14 ATS +2.94 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
