This week’s edition of “NFL Underdogs” is brought to you by… my kids’ Halloween candy.
After a successful night of Trick-or-Treating last Friday, I’ve implemented the “candy vig” and boy, is the rake good this year.
Those sugary snacks are like smelling salts to Maxx Crosby, firing up my cranium to crank out some NFL picks and predictions, getting the points in Week 10.
After “Dog-Mageddon” the previous two weeks (in which underdogs finished 7-21 ATS), pups barked back in Week 9 (9-5 ATS) and I posted a perfect 3-0 ATS mark with my column bets.
I’m piling on the points with my NFL Week 10 picks, almost as high as the mountain of candy wrappers covering my desk.
Last week: 3-0 ATS
Season: 15-12 ATS (+1.39 units)
NFL Week 10 predictions and picks
Raiders +10
Vikings +4.5
Eagles +2.5Las Vegas Raiders (+10) at Denver Broncos
Best bet: Raiders +10
(-128 at Pinnacle)
Prime time has belonged to the pups this season, and Thursday Night Football is a breeding ground for weird results.
The Denver Broncos find themselves in a strange spot at home in this mid-week meeting with the Las Vegas Raiders.
Denver will be playing its seventh game in 38 days (one every 5.4 days), a stretch that also included a trip to the UK in Week 6. There could also be a look-ahead lingering for the Broncos, who host Kansas City in Week 11.
That busy slate and tight turnaround are compounding a laundry list of injuries for the Denver defense. Six starters have questionable designations, and standout DE Zach Allen (who isn’t listed) battled through injury in Week 9’s grinder with Houston.
Sprinkle in some offensive ailments, and you can see why this spread is slimming across the industry (as low as -8.5 as of this writing).
The Raiders looked better after their bye week. Las Vegas went to overtime and lost against Jacksonville, but the offense put up 331 yards, 26 first downs, and went 7-for-10 on third down.
Geno Smith had his full array of receivers back in action — plus Tyler Lockett (but now minus Jakobi Meyers) — and finished with four TD passes against a good Jaguars defense.
He’ll enjoy the man-heavy schemes of the Broncos’ secondary, especially if guys like Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss are missing. The veteran QB sees a significant uptick in output against man coverage for his career.
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings +4.5
Best bet: Vikings +4.5
(-115 at DraftKings)
The Minnesota Vikings scored a season-saving victory at Detroit in Week 9, thanks to the return of QB1 J.J. McCarthy, but it was even more of a return to form for this havoc-wreaking defense.
The Vikings’ aggressive blitz-heavy approach was getting burned in the first half of the schedule, unable to create the game-changing plays that made Minnesota a dangerous team in 2024.
However, Brian Flores’ crew came for Jared Goff’s soul last Sunday, scoring five sacks and 18 pressures, allotting the Lions’ QB fewer than 2.4 seconds with the ball before ending up on his head.
This week’s foe is much spryer than Goff, though, and that’s putting it lightly. That said, Flores had some success vs. Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson during this tenure in Miami.
Luckily for the Vikes, McCarthy breathed life into this offense in his first game since Week 2. He passed for two touchdowns and ran one in himself, giving Minnesota its best offensive day in five weeks.
That builds momentum for this matchup with a Baltimore defense that sits near the bottom of the league in most advanced metrics. This stop unit is improving, giving up a combined 22 points the past two games, but still budged for more than 700 total yards in those outings.
I like the revitalized home team on the other side of the underrated key number of four.
Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers
Best bet: Eagles +2.5
(-109 at Caesars)
The Super Bowl honeymoon is over for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Philadelphia seemed to stumble through the post-Lombardi fog in the first half of the schedule, still putting up a solid 6-2 SU record (5-3 ATS) but looking far removed from the team that was showered in confetti last February.
However, we have seen glimpses of greatness from this team in the past couple of games, especially the offense (No. 1 in EPA per play since Week 7). Philadelphia is now fresh and focused off the bye just in time for an NFC heavyweight bout with the Green Bay Packers in Week 10.
Philly got the best of Green Bay in last year’s NFC Wild Card, and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has had two weeks to scheme for the Cheeseheads, building on a successful shutdown of Jordan Love in last year’s postseason. Love finished 20-for-33 passing with just 212 yards and three interceptions in that contest.
The Green Bay offense is already in a tailspin with the loss of standout TE Tucker Kraft to a season-ending ACL injury that was salt on the wound during a 16-13 upset to Carolina last Sunday. That takes away Love’s favorite red-zone option and his pressure release when the pocket collapses.
Philadelphia’s pass rush is ramping up as well, scoring seven sacks in the past two games (after only nine in the opening six outings), and it just added depth with edge Jaelan Phillips at the trade deadline. That means good pressure with just the front four, which is a problem spot for Love according to his PFF ratings.
The Eagles remind everyone who the Super Bowl champs are in Week 10. I’ve already bet on the Philadelphia moneyline, so feel safe taking the +2.5.
My NFL Underdogs column is 15-12 ATS this season for +1.39 units.
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