An AFC East showdown takes center stage for Sunday Night Football when the New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills.
Drake Maye has shown improvement in his second year, and will hope to lead the Patriots to victory. But doing so will require stopping Josh Allen and ending a 14-game home winning streak for the Bills.
Here are my top Patriots vs. Bills props and NFL picks for October 5.
Patriots vs Bills SNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Dalton Kincaid |
Over 3.5 receptions | +112 |
 TreVeyon Henderson |
Over 26.5 rushing yards | -114 |
| Josh Allen |
Over 28.5 pass attempts | -128 |
Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 receptions (+112)
Dalton Kincaid had a season-low two targets last week against the Saints, catching just one pass for 28 yards and a touchdown.
But prior to that, he had at least four targets in each of the first three games. More importantly, he had four or more catches in those games.
Kincaid has played against the New England Patriots three times in the past two seasons, and he’s hauled in 4+ catches in each. He’s snagged 16 catches from 22 targets, proving to be a reliable safety valve for Josh Allen.
The Patriots are allowing the eighth-most receptions by tight ends at 5.75 per game, and only six teams are allowing more targets per game to the position. They’re also allowing the seventh-most yards to tight ends at 63 per contest.
That is partially being driven by the New England pass rush. Allen is likely going to need to check down a fair amount, and Kincaid will benefit.
I like Kincaid’s receiving yardage total of 31.5 yards, but I’ll go with his reception total at better odds as a strongly correlated play.
TreVeyon Henderson Over 26.5 rushing yards (-114)
TreVeyon Henderson isn’t New England’s lead back, and he’s not posting big numbers. But one thing he is doing is consistently hitting the total he’s projected for on Sunday night.
Henderson has rushed for 27 or more yards in three of his four games this season. The only exception was the win over Miami in which he had just three carries.
But over the past two games, he’s seen 18 touches in the rushing game. Not only are his carries going up, but his snap count is also increasing. He rewarded the Patriot coaching staff by scoring a touchdown last week against the Panthers while rushing for 32 yards on seven carries.
The good news for Henderson here is he might not even need those extra carries.
The Buffalo Bills are allowing six yards a carry, with only the Bears and Giants giving up a higher average. That’s probably why Buffalo opponents are also rushing at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
Given the Bills are also coughing up explosive runs at a ridiculous rate, Henderson should have no trouble reaching his total, and might even blow right past it.
Josh Allen Over 28.5 pass attempts (-128)
Buffalo has enjoyed success on the ground this season, and that’s taken a lot of pressure off the shoulders of Josh Allen.
The Bills have gotten three straight 100-yard rushing games from James Cook, and that’s why we’ve seen Allen post fewer pass attempts since he threw 46 in the opener.
But that should change against the Patriots, who are allowing the second-fewest yards per carry on the season. For example, De’Von Achane of the Dolphins ran for 5.2 yards per carry against the Bills, but just 2.7 against New England.
Combine that with the fact that this game should be fairly competitive, and I’ll be shocked if Allen doesn’t attempt at least 30 passes on the day. The total for this game is tied for the highest of the weekend, which means we should get plenty of possessions for the Bills.
Allen threw 29 passes last year in Buffalo’s 24-21 win over the Patriots, and New England’s opponents are calling pass plays on nearly 60% of snaps this season. He attempted 46 passes against the Ravens, and I’ll take the reigning MVP to take over down the stretch and clear this total.
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Patriots vs Bills SNF prop betting card
- Kincaid o3.5 recs (+112)
- Henderson o26.5 rush yds (-114)
- Allen o28.5 pass att (-128)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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