The Buffalo Bills would surely like to rely on fewer Josh Allen heroics to fuel their Super Bowl charge, but the reigning MVP continues to answer the call – and he’s the man to watch in this SNF clash with the New England Patriots.
Allen put on his cape for a clutch fourth-quarter drive in last weekend’s 31-19 victory over the New Orleans Saints, and he’s had the edge on the Patriots in recent years, with a 5-1 mark in his last six outings against this AFC East rival.
There’s plenty to choose from in the Josh Allen odds and prop bets, and I see him taking down the Pats with his legs in this October 5 matchup.
Josh Allen prop pick
Josh Allen best bet: Over 31.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
While James Cook is off to an explosive start and the Buffalo Bills' receiving corps is getting healthier, Josh Allen’s bruising runs are the superpower for this Bills offense. He’s already on pace for his seventh straight season with 100+ carries, and I like the Over on his rushing yards total on Sunday night against the Patriots.
There’s real consistency to this part of Allen’s production, with at least 30 rushing yards in five of his past seven games, and he may have to slip into improv mode again in Week 5 against a solid New England defense.
The Pats are allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL, but that feels like a bigger reason to fade Cook’s stat line this weekend. Allen is more opportunistic, as he showed with his 27-yard run against the Saints last Sunday.
With 75 pass attempts across the last three contests, the Bills have tried to avoid putting their QB in positions to take big hits. But it’s usually Allen himself dishing out the punishment when he gets to the next level against linebackers and safeties.
This matchup is going to mean a shift for the New England defense. From Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa to Aaron Rodgers and Bryce Young, the Pats have faced a steady diet of pocket passers this year. That changes on Sunday.
Josh Allen same-game parlay
Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards
Josh Allen anytime touchdown
TreVeyon Henderson anytime touchdown
I’m doubling down on Allen’s threat as a runner by picking an anytime touchdown for No.17, too. His rushing TD tally stands at three heading into this Week 5 matchup, and he’s rumbled into the end zone in two of the last three contests against the Patriots.
TreVeyon Henderson scored his first NFL touchdown against the Carolina Panthers last weekend, and it feels like only a matter of time before he takes more of the backfield work from Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. With opportunities as a rusher and a receiver, Henderson offers great TD value.
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