AFC East rivals, the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills, will clash this Sunday night in Orchard Park, New York.
Buffalo is a heavy -8.5 betting favorite over the Pats at most sportsbooks. SNF props are also available to bet on now, and we’ll highlight some of the top player prop projections below.
Our computer projects big evenings from Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid.
Patriots vs Bills computer picks for Sunday Night Football
 Patriots |
 Bills |
|---|---|
| Maye Over 221.5 passing yards (-115) | Allen Under 226.5 passing yards (-112) |
| Stevenson Over 32.5 rushing yards (-114) | Cook Under 83.5 rushing yards (-118) |
| Diggs Under 48.5 receiving yards (-112) | Shakir Over 41.5 receiving yards (-113) |
| Henry Over 40.5 receiving yards (-110) | Kincaid Over 33.5 receiving yards (-118) |
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Patriots SNF computer picks
Drake Maye Over 221.5 passing yards (-115)
Projection: 232.02 yards
The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the least amount of passing yards in the NFL so far this season, but those numbers ring a bit hollow.
In the past three weeks, these are the quarterbacks the Bills have faced: Tyrod Taylor, Tua Tagovailoa, and Spencer Rattler. Not exactly a murderers’ row of slingers.
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is getting stronger with each game this season, and he currently leads the NFL in completion percentage at 74 percent.
The computer has Maye slightly going Over here, and I agree.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 32.5 rushing yards (-114)
Projection: 35.2 yards
While Buffalo’s pass defense statistics are gaudy, its run defense numbers are in the toilet. Buffalo is allowing 164.3 yards per game on the ground. That’s the second-worst mark behind only the Chicago Bears.
I think the days of the Patriots trusting Rhamondre Stevenson to carry the ball 15 times or more in a game are over, given his fumbling issues. At the same time, the Pats will surely try to play a "time of possession game" against the Bills to keep Josh Allen off the field.
Stevenson should get around 10 carries in this game, so getting to this number is definitely doable.
I agree with our AI here.
Alternate-total bet
60+ yards rushing + receiving (+149): Good value here for an RB who is also a threat in the passing game. Stevenson popped for 88 yards receiving against Miami in Week 2 and had 38 yards receiving against Pittsburgh in Week 3.
Stefon Diggs Under 48.5 receiving yards (-112)
Projection: 45.9 yards
Stefon Diggs is the type to hold a grudge, and he no doubt will want to go off here against his old club after the Bills traded him away in April 2024.
This is Diggs’ second game against the Bills after being traded away, as he faced them last year while a member of the Houston Texans. Diggs had six catches for 82 yards in that game last October.
The 31-year-old Diggs is also coming off his best game as a Patriot, as he caught six balls for 101 yards last week in a win over the Carolina Panthers. It felt in that game that New England finally felt comfortable "unleashing" him.
I’ll disagree with the computer here and take the Over.
Hunter Henry Over 40.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 44.6 yards
The New England offense is at its best when Hunter Henry is a focal point, so I think Sean McDermott will elect to try and shut this part of the Pats offense down.
Henry will get his typical three to four catches, and likely wind up in the high 20s or 30s when it comes to yardage. This number is just a little too high for my liking.
I’ll take the Under and go against Mr. Computer.
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Bills SNF computer picks
Josh Allen Under 226.5 passing yards (-112)
Projection: 225 yards
Josh Allen has gone Over this number just once this season, as he put up 394 yards through the air against Baltimore in that crazy Week 1 SNF game.
The Patriots' defense has been much better against the run than the pass, but the unit should be better moving forward as star cornerback Christian Gonzalez has returned to the lineup.
However, this number just seems too low, especially for Allen on prime time.
I like him to go slightly Over 226.5 yards.
James Cook Under 83.5 rushing yards (-118)
Projection: 69.9 yards
James Cook has been on a tear of late as he put up 132 yards rushing in Week 2 against the Jets, 108 yards in Week 3 against Miami, and 117 yards this past week against New Orleans.
He will find the sledding much tougher against a New England defense that has consistently silenced top running backs this season. The Pats D held Ashton Jeanty to 38 rushing yards in Week 1, allowed just 30 yards to De’Von Achane in Week 2, gave up only 47 yards to Jaylen Warren in Week 3, and allowed just 49 yards to Chuba Hubbard this past week.
I agree with our AI and forecast Cook finishing Under this massive number.
Khalil Shakir Over 41.5 receiving yards (-113)
Projection: 48.1 yards
The Bills do not have a true No. 1 receiver as Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman share the billing.
As mentioned above, Pats cornerback Christian Gonzalez has returned, and Mike Vrabel will likely deploy him on Shakir or Coleman for most of the night.
Here’s thinking Gonzalez will get the brunt of Shakir's duty and will all but shut him down.
I like the Shakir Under.
Dalton Kincaid Over 33.5 receiving yards (-118)
Projection: 38.7 yards
Opposing tight ends have found some success against the New England defense thus far this year, enough so that I think Dalton Kincaid can eclipse 33.5 yards.
Las Vegas Raiders TE Brock Bowers rang up 103 yards on the Pats D in Week 1. Last week, Tommy Tremble was one of the lone bright spots for the Carolina Panthers against the Pats as he had five catches for 42 yards and a TD.
This number seems a little low for Kincaid, who has gone over this number in three games so far this season.
Our AI and I like this Over.
Alternate-total bet
40+ yards receiving (+139): Good value here for Kincade, who was targeted just once last week against New Orleans. McDermott and Allen will surely make it a point of emphasis to get Kincade the ball more often this week.
