AFC East rivals, the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills, will clash this Sunday night in Orchard Park, New York.
Buffalo is a heavy -8.5 betting favorite over the Pats at most sportsbooks. SNF props are also available to bet on now, and we’ll highlight some of the top player prop projections below.
Our computer projects big evenings from Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid.
Patriots vs Bills computer picks for Sunday Night Football
 Patriots |
 Bills |
|---|---|
| Maye Over 221.5 passing yards (-115) | Allen Under 226.5 passing yards (-112) |
| Stevenson Over 32.5 rushing yards (-114) | Cook Under 83.5 rushing yards (-118) |
| Diggs Under 48.5 receiving yards (-112) | Shakir Over 41.5 receiving yards (-113) |
| Henry Over 40.5 receiving yards (-110) | Kincaid Over 33.5 receiving yards (-118) |
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Lions SNF computer picks
Jared Goff Over 1.5 passing TDs (-136)
Projection: 1.65 TD passes
The Lions are close to middle of the pack when it comes to passing yardage, but their offense leads the NFL when it comes to points put on the board. Detroit is scoring at an impressive 34.8 ppg clip.
This means they capitalize on their red zone opportunities. The Lions score a touchdown 76% of the time they reach the end zone. That’s the third-best mark in the NFL.
The computer and I both like Goff to punch a couple in here against KC.
Jahmyr Gibbs Under 70.5 rushing yards (-114)
Projection: 62.0 rushing yards
Gibbs has rushed for Over 70 yards in just two of five games to start the season. He has not cracked the 100-yard mark in any game this season, as of yet.
The Kansas City defense, meanwhile, has done a nice job of silencing top NFL RBs this season. The unit held Travis Etienne to 49 yards on the ground, Derrick Henry to 42 yards rushing, and Omarion Hampton to 48 yards. It has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in a game so far this season.
The computer and I are on the same page again. We’ll take the Under on Gibbs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 68.5 receiving yards (-115)
Projection: 78.3 receiving yards
I don’t like St. Brown to have a monster game against the Chiefs, but over 68.5 yards receiving should be doable. The Kansas City defense has allowed top receivers like Brian Thomas, Zay Flowers and Ladd McConkey to pop for over 70 yards receiving in games so far this season.
I like Amon-Ra to accomplish that feat here, and so does my computer pal.
Sam LaPorta Over 39.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 44.9 receiving yards
The Chiefs defense has done a fabulous job on tight ends so far this season.
It held Mark Andrews to 30 yards receiving, Theo Johnson to 10 yards receiving, and Brenton Strange to 22 yards receiving. In KC’s game against the Eagles, the unit allowed just two catches for 11 yards against Philadelphia TEs.
LaPorta is an excellent player, but 39.5 yards is a lot to ask against a Steve Spagnuolo defense.
I’ll go against my robotic friend here and take the Under.
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Bills SNF computer picks
Josh Allen Under 226.5 passing yards (-112)
Projection: 225 yards
Josh Allen has gone Over this number just once this season, as he put up 394 yards through the air against Baltimore in that crazy Week 1 SNF game.
The Patriots' defense has been much better against the run than the pass, but the unit should be better moving forward as star cornerback Christian Gonzalez has returned to the lineup.
However, this number just seems too low, especially for Allen on prime time.
I like him to go slightly Over 226.5 yards.
James Cook Under 83.5 rushing yards (-118)
Projection: 69.9 yards
James Cook has been on a tear of late as he put up 132 yards rushing in Week 2 against the Jets, 108 yards in Week 3 against Miami, and 117 yards this past week against New Orleans.
He will find the sledding much tougher against a New England defense that has consistently silenced top running backs this season. The Pats D held Ashton Jeanty to 38 rushing yards in Week 1, allowed just 30 yards to De’Von Achane in Week 2, gave up only 47 yards to Jaylen Warren in Week 3, and allowed just 49 yards to Chuba Hubbard this past week.
I agree with our AI and forecast Cook finishing Under this massive number.
Khalil Shakir Over 41.5 receiving yards (-113)
Projection: 48.1 yards
The Bills do not have a true No. 1 receiver as Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman share the billing.
As mentioned above, Pats cornerback Christian Gonzalez has returned, and Mike Vrabel will likely deploy him on Shakir or Coleman for most of the night.
Here’s thinking Gonzalez will get the brunt of Shakir's duty and will all but shut him down.
I like the Shakir Under.
Dalton Kincaid Over 33.5 receiving yards (-118)
Projection: 38.7 yards
Opposing tight ends have found some success against the New England defense thus far this year, enough so that I think Dalton Kincaid can eclipse 33.5 yards.
Las Vegas Raiders TE Brock Bowers rang up 103 yards on the Pats D in Week 1. Last week, Tommy Tremble was one of the lone bright spots for the Carolina Panthers against the Pats as he had five catches for 42 yards and a TD.
This number seems a little low for Kincaid, who has gone over this number in three games so far this season.
Our AI and I like this Over.
Alternate-total bet
40+ yards receiving (+139): Good value here for Kincade, who was targeted just once last week against New Orleans. McDermott and Allen will surely make it a point of emphasis to get Kincade the ball more often this week.
