The Buffalo Bills can put some major space between them and the rest of the AFC East when they host the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football.
This divisional rivalry has one of the biggest spreads on the NFL Week 5 odds board, but there’s already been significant movement to this line since opening.
Here are my early Patriots vs. Bills predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October 5.
Patriots vs Bills predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early SNF spread pick: Buffalo -8.5
Look-ahead lines had this spread as big as Buffalo -10.5, and some books opened with that hefty number Sunday night. They drew instant action on the New England Patriots, dropping this spread as many as two points to Bills -8.5.
The line movement is warranted, considering this is a division game and familiarity breeds competition. However, there is a notable gap between these two teams, and Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen is a massive step up in competition for this Patriots defense.
New England’s pass defense is already questionable, entering Week 5 ranked 27th in EPA per dropback and 29th in opponent success rate per pass. Those numbers came against the likes of Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Darnold, and Bryce Young.
Allen and this “everyone eats” Bills offense is head-and-shoulders the top attack in the land, rating No. 1 in EPA per play and No. 3 in PFF grading. That’s even with a downgrade from a lackluster effort versus the New Orleans Saints in Week 4 — which still garnered 31 points.
Put the Bills against a divisional foe on primetime at Orchard Park and I’ll gladly take the adjusted spread of -8.5 with the home side.
Early SNF total pick: Under 49.5
Some sportsbooks have jumped to as high as 50.5 points for this SNF total. That just seems too tall for a divisional grudge match.
This total seems inflated after New England stacked 42 points against a dismal Carolina Panthers defense in Week 4. The Patriots' offense is much improved under Josh McDaniels’ playcalling, but they’ve also faced some porous defenses in the opening four weeks.
The Patriots may choose to go run-heavy against the Bills, as to not only control possession and limit Allen’s time with the football but also poke the soft spot of this Bills defense. Buffalo sits 28th in EPA allowed per handoff and 29th in run stop grading at PFF.
That Bills defense could get back key cogs in Ed Oliver and Matt Milano on Sunday night, which would be a big boost to that run stop success. The passing defense is getting good pressure on rival QBs, producing a top 3 hurry and pressure rate per dropback.
New England’s offensive line has allowed second-year QB Drake Maye to feel the third-highest pressure rate through four weeks, giving up 13 sacks already. Maye’s PFF passer rating plummets from 83.2 when kept clean to 53.3 when pressured — 24th among all quarterbacks.
Patriots vs Bills odds
- Patriots vs. Bills spread: Bills -10.5
- Patriots vs. Bills moneyline: Patriots +363, Bills -460
- Patriots vs. Bills Over/Under: 48.5
How to watch Patriots vs Bills
- Patriots vs. Bills matchup
- Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025, 8:20 p.m. ET
- City: Orchard Park
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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