Thursday Night Football’s matchup between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers will be a throwback to the 1990’s.
No, the teams won’t be sporting Zubaz pants or jerseys from that era, nor will Bell Biv DeVoe be performing at halftime. Thursday’s game features an Over/Under total the likes of which NFL bettors haven’t seen since 1993.
As of Monday afternoon, the Over/Under for Patriots-Steelers sits as low as 30 points.
It’s by far the shortest number of the 2023 season (which was 33 points between the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons this past weekend), and should it close at 30 or lower, it would be the smallest regular season total in 29 years.
And why shouldn’t it be? New England and Pittsburgh sit at the bottom of most advanced and basic offensive stats, averaging a respective 12.3 and 16 points per game on the year.
Patriots and Steelers are trending in the wrong direction on offense
Things have gotten much worse in recent weeks, with the Patriots posting a total of 13 points in the last three games while the Steelers have mustered a mere 36 points in their last three showings.
Adding to this diminutive projection is two solid defenses (ranked No. 1 and No. 5 in points against the last three weeks), two offenses missing key players (Rhamondre Stevenson and Kenny Pickett), and the short turnaround on Thursday night.
The look-ahead total for this game was as high as 35 points before this weekend’s results and the official NFL Week 14 opener hit the board at 33 points Sunday night. That instantly took Under play and books are quickly dropping that total, despite sinking through some key numbers in terms of Over/Under betting.
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Week 14's TNF total could end up at 28
"Normally, a 30.5-point total would be a huge Over play, but the proof is in the pudding, as they say," Aron Wattleworth, trading manager at bet365 told Covers. "With it going below 31 to 30 points, it probably ends up 28.5. Maybe even 28, to take any perceived extra value off the alternative totals. The lower the game total the more value in the key numbers."
If that prediction is correct, Thursday Night Football would be closing in on historic status for NFL betting. The lowest total in betting history actually belongs to two games both played on December 26, 1993.
According to Gracenote data, the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears as well as Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots both closed with totals of only 28 points on that day.
While these games were played in cold weather in Foxborough and Chicago, there was no snow or major weather plaguing play. The Lions beat the Bears 20-14 and topped the total, while the Patriots blanked the Colts 38-0 and went Over all on their own.
In fact, since 1991 there have been only four regular season games with a closing total of 30 points or less and those contests finished 3-1 Over/Under. Most sportsbooks have Thursday’s total at 30.5 points – a mark that has still produced a 6-2 O/U record for totals of 30.5 points or shorter in that span.
The Under has been a profitable play in 2023
The 2023 season has been a profitable one for anyone banking on low-scoring finishes, with NFL games playing Under at a 57.3% clip entering Week 13’s finale on Monday night. And that’s after the first 12 games of Week 13 went 8-4 Over/Under.
"It’s just better defenses than offenses in general," says Wattleworth when asked about the windfall for Unders. "With some key starting quarterback injuries and the overall lack of quality staring QBs and backups around the league, we’re seeing some very below-average play."
There’s been an average of 43.4 combined points scored per game so far in 2023, which is low compared to recent outputs of 46.0 in 2021 and 49.6 in the 2020 COVID season (the highest in league history) when venues had no or limited fans in attendance.
The last time NFL scoring dropped this low was 2017, which finished with that exact average of 43.4 points per game. That regular season finished with a 54% winning clip for Unders.
Thursday’s total will be the 39th game with a sub-40 Over/Under in 2023, with closing totals of 39.5 points or fewer going 15-24 O/U (61.5% Under. The lowest of the low – totals of 34.5 points or less – are 0-3 O/U heading into Week 14.
