Our second Wild Card odds matchup tonight takes us to Arrowhead, where the Kansas City Chiefs will aim to silence the critics and boost their Super Bowl odds to start their title defense.
Waiting on the other side of things will be a high-octane Miami Dolphins offense which has dazzled week after week, but might their defense open up some money-making opportunities for us?
Let’s break down the best ways to bet on Patrick Mahomes odds in our NFL picks for this Wild Card showdown.
Don't forget to check out our full Dolphins vs. Chiefs picks and predictions, as well as our Miami vs. Kansas City player props column for more NFL odds analysis!
Patrick Mahomes Wild Card prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Patrick Mahomes Wild Card prop pick
Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-130)
As I alluded to above, the Dolphins’ defense has been their Achilles heel this season. Sure, Jalen Ramsey has helped shore up a struggling secondary, but when it was all said and done in 2023, Miami ranked 13th in EPA and 15th in success rate per dropback.
On top of that, Miami’s defense seemed to get even worse as the season came to a close. There were some decent performances mixed in there over the last couple of months, but they came against signal-callers like Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle, Sam Howell, and Will Levis. When you take out those games and focus on Miami’s recent run against above-average quarterbacks, things look a lot more bleak.
In the remaining games — against Buffalo, Baltimore, Dallas, and these same Kansas City Chiefs, the Dolphins allowed opposing passers to average over 300 yards and each quarterback threw for at least two touchdowns. While I’d love to buy low on Mahomes’ yards, this touchdown prop — one that he hit last time out against the Dolphins when they squared off in Germany — is the way to go.
At home this season, Mahomes is averaging 1.88 touchdown passes per game as opposed to 1.42 on the road. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in four of his last five games as the stakes have increased, and ever since his loss in Super Bowl LV, Mahomes has thrown for more than one touchdown in each of his six playoff games, averaging three per game.
Mahomes tends to turn his level up when the games get important, as evidenced by his playoff track record and his recent run to close the season. He’s only failed to cash the Over 1.5 touchdown passes three times in 14 playoff games, and one was his first-ever playoff start back in 2018.
Prop: Over 1.5 touchdown passes (-130 at PointsBet)
Patrick Mahomes Wild Card same-game parlay
Mahomes Over 1.5 touchdown passes
Noah Gray Over 1.5 receptions
We’ve covered how Mahomes should have a good day against a relatively weak Dolphins secondary, but who might benefit from their loose coverage?
Picking out a Chiefs receiver — a group that has become notorious for their issues with drops — is a hard proposition, but with the stakes higher than ever this season, I think Mahomes is going to look to guys who he can trust.
One of those guys is Noah Gray. As plenty of attention has been paid to the Chiefs’ starting tight end this season for a myriad of reasons, few have talked about Gray’s consistent production for Kansas City in a relatively minor role.
The backup to Travis Kelce, Gray has hauled in 68.3% of his targets this season, and over the last three weeks has become increasingly involved, with 3.3 targets per game. He caught three passes for a near-season high 34 yards in the previous meeting between these two teams, and I expect more of the same on Saturday.
Gray hasn’t been targeted much throughout his playoff career, but he does have a reception in each of his last three postseason games on four targets. With just about every Chiefs receiver letting Mahomes down, I believe he’ll turn to Gray at least a few times in this game, and it certainly doesn’t hurt here that Miami’s ranked 21st in receptions per game allowed to opposing tight ends.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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