The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Green Bay Packers in NFL action on Sunday. Pittsburgh will enjoy a mini break after beating the Titans on Thursday night to improve to 5-3. Green Bay is also fresh off a victory after defeating the Rams on Sunday but remains below .500 with a 3-5 mark.
NFL odds have the Steelers installed as 3-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 38 for this Week 10 matchup. Here are my best free NFL picks for the Steelers vs. Packers on November 12.
Packers vs Steelers odds
Packers vs Steelers predictions
The Green Bay Packers are coming off a 20-3 win at Lambeau but were fortunate to face a Rams side that had Brett Rypien at quarterback. That snapped a four-game skid for the Packers who've scored just 16.3 points per game in their last six contests and couldn't even move the ball against terrible defenses in Denver and Las Vegas.
Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love is coming off his best game as a pro but he's been awful more times than not and has crumbled when pressured. Love has a solid passing grade of 74.8 per PFF when kept clean in the pocket but that number plummets to 42.9 under pressure... and the Pittsburgh Steelers have the sixth-highest pressure rate in the league.
Love's overall passing grade of 65.4 is just 24th in the NFL among qualifying QBs and Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett sits right behind him at 64.9. With terrible play calling and poor offensive line play, the Steelers have also struggled to run the ball averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.
As bad as these teams have been on offense, they've somehow been even worse during the first half of games. The Packers are dead-last in the NFL in first-half scoring with 4.5 ppg while the Steelers are just a few spots ahead of them with 6.9.
The analytics tell a similar story, with Green Bay 28th in the league in offensive EPA and 29th in success rate in the first half, while Pittsburgh is 30th in EPA and 31st in success rate.
On the other side of the ball, these teams have been solid. The Steelers are ninth in the NFL in defensive EPA and should be better against the run now that Cameron Heyward is back on the line. The Packers are a more modest 16th in defensive EPA but have held foes to just 4.9 yards per play — the sixth-best number in the league.
Expect a slow start from both of these sluggish offenses and take the Under on the first half total.
My best bet: First half Under 19.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Packers vs Steelers same-game parlay
First half Under 19.5
Result of first Steelers drive: Punt
Diontae Johnson Over 62.5 receiving yards
I'm expecting both teams to struggle in the first half, which also means that the Steelers will likely be unsuccessful on their first drive of the game. Pittsburgh is dead-last in the NFL in offensive EPA in the first quarter and punts at the second-highest rate in the league.
Fading this Steelers offense provides a nice parlay multiplier when parlayed with the Over on Diontae Johnson's receiving yards. Since coming off the IL, Johnson has logged 79, 85, and 90 receiving yards and he has clearly been Pickett's most reliable target.
It also helps that Johnson is at his best against zone coverage and Green Bay plays zone at the seventh-highest rate in the league. The Packers are also thin at corner, with their best DB Jaire Alexander absent in practice due to a shoulder injury and Rasul Douglas traded away last week.
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Packers vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis
The Steelers opened as 2.5-point faves before early money came in on them, moving that spread to -3.5. Buyback on the Pack has shifted this line down to that key number of 3.0, albeit with Pittsburgh priced at -115 or -120 as of Tuesday afternoon.
It's more surprising to see the O/U tick up to 38 from the opening number of 37 despite both of these teams looking awful on offense.
Despite that inefficient offense, the Steelers have been winning going 5-2 straight up and against the spread in their last seven games.
The Packers are coming off a 20-3 victory against the Rams where they held a Brett Rypien-led attack to just 187 total yards. However, they went just 0-4 SU and ATS in their previous four contests.
Packers vs Steelers betting trend to know
The Under has cashed in six consecutive games for the Steelers while hitting in each of the previous four contests for the Packers. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Steelers.
Packers vs Steelers game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, November 12, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Steelers -2.5, 37 O/U |
Packers vs Steelers latest injuries
Packers vs Steelers weather
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