It's Thanksgiving Thursday, which means a triple-header of NFL Week 12 games beginning with a clash of NFC North rivals the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.
Detroit has been hosting an annual Turkey Day game since 1934 and while the Lions have lost five straight on Thanksgiving, they are expected to come away with a win this time around.
NFL odds hit the board with the NFC North-leading Lions as 7.5-point favorites for this Week 12 clash with the Over/Under at 46.5. Here are my best free Packers vs. Lions NFL picks for Thursday, November 23.
In addition to TNF odds, be sure to also take a look at Jared Goff odds in our player spotlight for this game. Josh Inglis also has you covered with a selection of Packers vs. Lions props for your betting slate.
Packers vs Lions odds
Packers vs Lions predictions
That said, the Lions have been the far better team over the course of the entire season which is reflected in their 8-2 record — the second-best mark in the league. On the other hand, the Packers have struggled in Year 1 of the post-Aaron Rodgers era.
They've gone just 2-5 straight up and against the spread in their last seven games with their only other victory coming against a Rams team that had Brett Rypien at quarterback. Oh, and that seven-game span began with a 34-20 loss to the Lions at home back in Week 4.
The Lions jumped out to a 27-3 halftime lead in that contest and ended the game with 211 yards on the ground while limiting the Pack to 27 rushing yards and sacking Jordan Love five times. It's tough to see this rematch going much differently since the Packers have lost four straight games away from Lambeau Field while the Lions are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their previous four contests at home.
Love is coming off one of his best games as a pro, throwing for 322 yards and a pair of scores against a Bottom-5 Chargers defense. However, he's been wildly inconsistent and ranks just 21st in the league in passing grade, per PFF. It doesn't help that he has a subpar group of receivers to throw to and Green Bay's ground game also took a hit when running back Aaron Jones left Sunday's game with a knee injury.
The Lions have a middling defense that's 16th in the league in dropback EPA and 12th in rush EPA. However, while they've gotten torched by explosive attacks, they've generally been able to keep below-average offenses in check.
On the other side of the ball, Detroit has a balanced and efficient offense that ranks ninth in EPA and sixth in success rate. Jared Goff is fifth in the league in passing grade while wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown is fifth in receiving yards (898). Meanwhile, speedy rookie Jahmyr Gibbs and bruising veteran David Montgomery are spearheading one of the league's top rushing attacks and they should shred a Packers defense that surrenders 134.7 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry.
I'm backing the better team here but with this line sitting just over that key number of 7, consider using the Lions as a teaser leg this week.
My best bet: Lions -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Packers vs Lions same-game parlay
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 27.5 receiving yards
Kalif Raymond Under 14.5 receiving yards
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Jahmyr Gibbs has racked up at least 35 receiving yards in each of his last four games and had six catches for 59 yards last week. With a healthy David Montgomery back in the lineup, Gibbs will see a decline in his rush attempts despite a breakout performance in Week 9. However, the Lions will try to still get the ball in the hands of their first-round playmaker and they love to involve their running backs in the passing game.
On the surface, this receiving yards total for Kalif Raymond looks too low. After all, the Lions receiver has eclipsed this number in eight of 10 games this year. However, Raymond had just one catch for -2 yards against Green Bay in Week 4 and also had just a single catch for five yards last week.
Raymond also had a season-low 21% snap share on Sunday while 2022 first-round receiver Jameson Williams logged a season-high 65%. Raymond could continue to see less of the field, especially with Donovan Peoples-Jones also making his team debut last week and likely cutting into his reps as well.
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Packers vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
The look-ahead line for this game had the Lions at -7.5. There was a brief moment after both teams won on Sunday where the line ticked down to that key number of 7 but quickly moved back up to 7.5.
The Over/Number has seen plenty of movement with the look-ahead total at 44.5 before officially opening at 45.5 and surging to the current O/U of 47.
When these teams faced off in Green Bay in Week 4, the Lions were 2.5-point road faves with the total at 45. Books now seem more convinced that the Lions are for real but they also seem to have a bit more confidence in Green Bay's offense after the Packers racked up almost 400 yards in back-to-back weeks.
Packers vs Lions betting trend to know
The Lions are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four games between these division rivals. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Lions.
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Packers vs Lions game info
|Ford Field, Detroit, MI
|Thursday, November 23, 2023
|12:30 p.m. ET
|Lions -7.5, 45.5 O/U
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