The Covers Anytime TD Value Index No. 1 player did it again last week: we have now predicted a touchdown scorer with our top Anytime TD market pick in four of five weeks in 2026.
We're on the value: let's let it ride.
No more chatter, no more preamble: here are the best Anytime TD Scorer predictions for NFL Week 6.
Best anytime TD scorer predictions this week
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Player | Position |  Probability |
Index Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Cook III (  vs. ) |
RB | 58% | 81 |
| 2 | Kyren Williams (  vs. ) |
RB | 66% | 81 |
| 3 | Josh Allen ( vs.) |
QB | 60% | 79 |
| 4 | Davante Adams ( vs.) |
WR | 51% | 79 |
| 5 | Puka Nacua ( vs.) |
WR | 59% | 79 |
| 6 | Christian Watson (  vs. ) |
WR | 43% | 77 |
| 7 | Drake London (  vs. ) |
WR | 45% | 73 |
| 8 | Blake Corum ( vs.) |
RB | 34% | 71 |
| 9 | Christian McCaffrey (  vs. ) |
RB | 74% | 71 |
| 10 | Dalton Kincaid ( vs.) |
TE | 31% | 70 |
| 11 | Javonte Williams ( vs.) |
RB | 64% | 70 |
| 12 | Chuba Hubbard (  vs. ) |
RB | 48% | 68 |
| 13 | Bijan Robinson ( vs.) |
RB | 65% | 68 |
| 14 | Jonathan Taylor (  vs. ) |
RB | 70% | 68 |
| 15 | Tyler Warren ( vs.) |
TE | 37% | 67 |
| 16 | Khalil Shakir ( vs.) |
WR | 30% | 67 |
| 17 | Jayden Daniels ( vs.) |
QB | 28% | 66 |
| 18 | Josh Downs ( vs.) |
WR | 33% | 66 |
| 19 | Cam Skattebo (  vs. ) |
RB | 49% | 66 |
| 20 | Kenneth Walker III (  vs. ) |
RB | 62% | 66 |
| 21 | DAndre Swift ( vs.) |
RB | 61% | 66 |
| 22 | Pierre Strong Jr. ( vs.) |
RB | 26% | 65 |
| 23 | Tyler Higbee ( vs.) |
TE | 25% | 65 |
| 24 | MarShawn Lloyd ( vs.) |
RB | 58% | 65 |
| 25 | Woody Marks (  vs. ) |
RB | 45% | 64 |
Accurate as of Oct. 16. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Best Week 6 anytime TD predictions
James Cook III | RB 58%
-
The Market Illusion: “Josh Allen’s goal-line dominance makes Cook unreliable at a premium price.”
-
The Structural Reality: Cook has amassed 95 carries, 532 rushing yards, and five touchdowns, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. His 102 touches rank seventh league-wide, while Buffalo owns a 29.3-point implied total. Las Vegas has defended conventional rushing efficiently, but Cook’s explosiveness and 14 red-zone touches preserve multiple paths.
At 58%, he must score once every 1.72 games. Allen undeniably limits the ceiling, yet Cook’s workload, efficiency, and scoring environment justify his pool-leading 81 index.
Kyren Williams | RB 66%
-
The Market Illusion: “Blake Corum’s involvement prevents Williams from supporting a two-thirds probability.”
-
The Structural Reality: Williams has recorded 70 carries for 343 yards and four rushing touchdowns, adding 27 receptions and another score. His 97 touches rank ninth in the NFL, and his receiving expansion makes him less script-dependent. Los Angeles carries the slate’s highest implied team total at approximately 32 points against Arizona.
A 66% price requires a touchdown every 1.52 games. The environment and five-touchdown production support an elite ranking, although the expensive threshold and Corum’s complementary role explain the modest Market Value Gap of 60%.
Drake London | WR 45%
-
The Market Illusion: “Five scoreless games prove London lacks a dependable touchdown role.”
-
The Structural Reality: London has converted 27 receptions into 488 yards while playing approximately 88% of the Atlanta Falcons' offensive snaps. That elite yardage and route volume have produced zero touchdowns, creating a clear regression argument, although his red-zone involvement has been weaker than his overall usage. Atlanta’s 24.5-point implied total remains constructive.
At 45%, London must score once every 2.22 games. The price assumes substantial regression already, but his dominance between the twenties and secure role support a 73 index score.
Christian McCaffrey | RB 74%
-
The Market Illusion: “McCaffrey’s name recognition matters more than his present workload at this price.”
-
The Structural Reality: McCaffrey has 61 carries for 286 yards and five rushing touchdowns, with his snap share climbing above 80% in recent games. He also owns eight touches inside the five, leaving him with San Francisco’s clearest touchdown role. The 49ers lead the NFL with an 88.2% red-zone touchdown rate and carry a 29-point implied total.
At 74%, he must score every 1.35 games. His role supports that frequency, but the price offers almost no protection against variance.
Jonathan Taylor | RB 70%
-
The Market Illusion: “Taylor’s declining efficiency makes a 70% touchdown probability unsustainable.”
-
The Structural Reality: Taylor has handled 101 carries, fourth-most in the NFL, while producing 398 yards and six rushing touchdowns. Indianapolis enters as a seven-point favorite with a 25.5-point implied total, creating a favorable volume and game-script combination. The Colts converted 75% of their red-zone possessions before their Week 5 stumble.
At 70%, Taylor must score every 1.43 games. His 3.9-yard average is unimpressive, but workload and goal-line control matter more for this market. The profile is strong; the principal concern is simply price.
Kenneth Walker III | RB 62%
-
The Market Illusion: “Walker’s explosive start is unsustainable, and Kansas City will revert toward a pass-first offense.”
-
The Structural Reality: Walker has accumulated 537 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns on 87 carries, plus 84 receiving yards and two more scores. His 25 red-zone touches include 19 carries and six targets, demonstrating genuine scoring concentration rather than touchdown luck alone. Kansas City’s implied total is approximately 25 points.
At 62%, Walker must score once every 1.61 games. The Chargers’ strong run defense creates resistance, but Walker’s workload, receiving route, and six touchdowns in four appearances support his 66 index.
MarShawn Lloyd | RB 58%
-
The Market Illusion: “Dallas’ defense and Green Bay’s team total make every meaningful Packers back a premium touchdown play.”
-
The Structural Reality: Lloyd has 40 carries for only 112 yards, but 11 red-zone carries have produced two touchdowns; he has added 10 receptions and another score. The concern is role: his 38.6% snap share and 40.4% carry share confirm a committee with Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson. Dallas presents an excellent matchup and Green Bay projects for 27 points.
At 58%, Lloyd must score every 1.72 games. His opportunity is real, but the price substantially overstates its certainty.
Week 6 anytime touchdown props to avoid
Every week, the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index flags the five worst Anytime Touchdown propositions on the board. We aren't talking about the longest odds or the lowest raw probabilities.
We are talking about toxic ROI. These are the spots where the public narrative has inflated the price so severely that the bet is mathematically dead on arrival.
If you are looking for the kind of return Nick Sirianni hoped the Jaguars would get in London last week, these are your picks.
| Player | Position | Probability |
Index Score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy (  vs. ) |
WR | 18% | 39 | Avoid against Baltimore’s restrictive scoring environment. |
| CJ Stroud ( vs.) |
QB | 10% | 36 | Needs an unlikely scramble; pass despite the price. |
| Travis Hunter ( vs.) |
WR | 5% | 34 | Role too thin for a confident longshot. |
| Aaron Rodgers (  vs. ) |
QB | 6% | 33 | Pocket profile makes even 6% unattractive. |
| CLE Browns D/ST ( vs.) |
D/ST | 14% | 26 | Simple: just don't trade for Team D/STs! |
NFL Week 6 best anytime touchdown bets by position
If you are strictly a running back investor, or you only play tight end markets, we have you covered.
The index breaks down the board by position, highlighting the 10 clearest value plays across each skill group so you aren't blindly navigating a crowded market.
Top 10 quarterback TD props for Week 6
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen ( vs.) |
60% | 79 | Elite rushing equity despite price. |
| vs.) |
|||
| Jayden Daniels ( vs.) |
28% | 66 | Playable price for designed rushing upside. |
| Drake Maye (  vs. ) |
21% | 52 | Use only if rushing volume rises. |
| Daniel Jones ( vs.) |
16% | 51 | Matchup helps; touchdown path remains secondary. |
| Brock Purdy ( vs.) |
24% | 51 | Fade rushing score despite strong offense. |
| Jordan Love ( vs.) |
10% | 50 | Lottery-only; minimal designed rushing usage. |
| Tyler Shough ( vs.) |
21% | 50 | Speculative scramble equity meets soft matchup. |
| Bryce Young ( vs.) |
9% | 49 | Pass unless goal-line carries increase. |
| Matthew Stafford ( vs.) |
7% | 49 | Avoid; pocket profile lacks rushing path. |
* Jalen Hurts was ruled out of Week 6 on Thursday October 15
Top 10 running back TD props for Week 6
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III ( vs.) |
58% | 81 | Back workload; quarterback vultures goal-line chances. |
| Kyren Williams ( vs.) |
66% | 81 | Playable, though premium price limits cushion. |
| Blake Corum ( vs.) |
34% | 71 | Target as leverage on elite offense. |
| Christian McCaffrey ( vs.) |
74% | 71 | Elite role; wait for a better price. |
| Javonte Williams ( vs.) |
64% | 70 | Trust volume; avoid chasing touchdown streak. |
| Chuba Hubbard ( vs.) |
48% | 68 | Back near-even price on secure workload. |
| Bijan Robinson ( vs.) |
65% | 68 | Role remains elite; price demands efficiency. |
| Jonathan Taylor ( vs.) |
70% | 68 | Strong script; premium price reduces upside. |
| Cam Skattebo ( vs.) |
49% | 66 | Goal-line control supports near-even entry. |
| Kenneth Walker III ( vs.) |
62% | 66 | Production supports price; matchup adds resistance. |
Top 10 wide receiver TD props for Week 6
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams ( vs.) |
51% | 79 | Buy premium end-zone usage against Arizona. |
| Puka Nacua ( vs.) |
59% | 79 | Volume supports price despite teammate competition. |
| Christian Watson ( vs.) |
43% | 77 | Explosive scoring role remains underpriced. |
| Drake London ( vs.) |
45% | 73 | Buy touchdown regression, not recent results. |
| Khalil Shakir ( vs.) |
30% | 67 | Affordable access to high-scoring offense. |
| Josh Downs ( vs.) |
33% | 66 | Slot volume plus matchup creates value. |
| George Pickens ( vs.) |
39% | 62 | Target red-zone usage in shootout conditions. |
| Romeo Doubs ( vs.) |
35% | 61 | End-zone role offsets moderate team total. |
| Mike Evans ( vs.) |
53% | 61 | Strong environment; wait below fifty percent. |
| Matthew Golden ( vs.) |
37% | 60 | Matchup elevates secondary scoring role. |
Top 10 tight end TD props for Week 6
| Player | Probability |
Index Score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Kincaid ( vs.) |
31% | 70 | Target expanding red-zone role below one-third. |
| Tyler Warren ( vs.) |
37% | 67 | Reliable involvement supports current entry. |
| Tyler Higbee ( vs.) |
25% | 65 | Cheap exposure to slate-leading team total. |
| Colby Parkinson ( vs.) |
21% | 62 | Longer price preferred within crowded rotation. |
| Tucker Kraft ( vs.) |
33% | 62 | Dallas matchup offsets shared tight-end usage. |
| George Kittle ( vs.) |
48% | 62 | Elite offense, but entry lacks cushion. |
| Davis Allen ( vs.) |
10% | 61 | Use only as a long shot. |
| Trey McBride ( vs.) |
38% | 60 | Volume strong; poor environment caps upside. |
| Brock Bowers ( vs.) |
50% | 60 | Elite talent; price already assumes touchdown. |
| Dawson Knox ( vs.) |
15% | 59 | Affordable goal-line pivot in strong offense. |
How we decide which Week 6 NFL anytime TDs to pick
Behind the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index is a screening matrix built on cold, structural math to help make the best anytime TD scorer predictions every week.
We don't care about media hype. We don't care who went viral on Sunday.
Our system runs a multi-layered data ingest, cross-referencing live play-by-play mechanics against odds from the sharpest sportsbooks in the world. We look at dozens of hyper-specific metrics, including:
| Player red-zone touches, inside the opponent’s 20-yard line | Weekly point spread |
| Player goal-to-go touches, approximated as touches inside the 5-yard line | Implied team total, derived from the total and spread |
| Player share of the team’s red-zone touches | Best available anytime-touchdown price |
| Player share of the team’s goal-to-go touches | Number of sportsbooks offering that price |
| Player red-zone touchdowns | Implied probability |
| Player red-zone touchdown rate per red-zone touch | Median market implied probability when multiple books are supplied |
| Team red-zone trips | Number of completed games played by the player’s team |
| Team offensive red-zone touchdown percentage | Prior-season weighting, used while the current-season sample develops |
| Opponent red-zone trips faced | Current injuries, availability, workload changes, and role stability |
| Opponent red-zone touchdown percentage allowed | Player position, team, opponent, and scheduled matchup |
| Weekly game total |
This isn't a black box running on mystery algorithms. It is a highly calibrated heuristic engine.
We map our proprietary scoring against the market’s implied probability to isolate the exact friction points where pricing lags behind actual on-field volume. It is a premium, data-driven edge built to find the value before the market wakes up.
The lines are already moving. The public is currently throwing money at stale narratives. Trust the math and exploit the structural friction to secure your closing line value before kickoff.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
