Take a look at the historical NFL stats, and it’s clear to see the path pro football has been on the past two decades: this is a receiver’s league.
Receptions have spiked in that span, with the 2022 NFL season boasting the ninth-highest output for receivers since 1932.
Remember when you had to draft running backs quickly in your fantasy league? Well, these days no one would throw you a sideways look for taking Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase in the first round.
Those two talented wideout are also atop the NFL odds to lead the league in receiving yards this upcoming season. Below them are some potent pass catchers who could provide a pretty payout when Week 18 wraps up.
Most regular season total receiving yards odds
| Player | Team |  |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson |  Minnesota Vikings |
+650 |
| Ja'Marr Chase |  Cincinnati Bengals |
+750 |
| Tyreek Hill |  Miami Dolphins |
+1,000 |
| Cooper Kupp |  Los Angeles Rams |
+1,200 |
| A.J. Brown |  Philadelphia Eagles |
+1,600 |
| Davante Adams |  Las Vegas Raiders |
+1,600 |
| Stefon Diggs |  Buffalo Bills |
+1,800 |
| Jaylen Waddle |  Miami Dolphins |
+2,000 |
| CeeDee Lamb |  Dallas Cowboys |
+2,200 |
| Garrett Wilson |  New York Jets |
+2,200 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel, as of June 15, 2023.
I break down this NFL futures markets by tiers — favorites, sleepers and long shots — and give a best bet for each odds segment.
Best NFL bonuses
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the NFL, here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet up to $2,500! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best promo codes for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Favorites
As mentioned above, Justin Jefferson (+650) and Ja’Marr Chase (+750) are the two top favorites in the odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards in 2023.
Jefferson is the reigning receiving king, pacing the league with 1,809 yards for the Vikings, while Chase recorded 1,046 yards through the air despite playing in only a dozen games for the Bengals. Given his per game clip, he would have put up close to 1,482 yards over 17 games.
Below them is Tyreek Hill (+1,000), Cooper Kupp (+1,200), A.J. Brown (+1,600), Davante Adams (+1,600), and Stefon Diggs, who ranges from +1,600 to +2,000 after his camp drama this past week.
Hill finished second to Jefferson in yardage last year with 1,710 yards in his first season in Miami. This output came despite losing starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for four games and having guys like Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson under center. He still averaged more than 75 yards receiving in those contests with a backup making throws.
Hill caught 119 balls on 170 targets in 2022, and will continue to find his spots in Year 2 under head coach Mike McDaniel. Of course, his production is closely tethered to the health of Tagovailoa. The Dolphins threw the ball on almost 62% of snaps — the seventh-highest pass rate in the NFL — and the Cheetah is a threat to break off a huge home run on every connection.
Hill is certainly setting lofty goals for the 2023 campaign. He told the media he’s aiming for a 2,000-yard season, talking up his play, coaches and of course, Tagovailoa.
Pick: Tyreek Hill (+1,000 at bet365)
Sleepers
Behind those front runners, there are a number of gifted hands holding odds of 20/1 or greater. I’ve segmented receivers between +2,000 and +3,500 odds to lead the NFL in receiving into the “sleeper” group.
Leading the way is Hill’s Miami teammate Jaylen Waddle (+2,000), which tells you just how much oddsmakers expect the Dolphins to be chucking it. Waddle was seventh in yardage last season, finishing with 1,356 yards and boasting a league-high 18.1 yards per reception.
CeeDee Lamb (+2,200), Garrett Wilson (+2,200), Amon-Ra St. Brown (+2,500), and tight end Travis Kelce (+2,500) are just on the heels of Waddle in this market. Then you have Chris Olave (+3,000), Tee Higgins (+3,500), and Terry McLaurin (+3,500).
For the sake of argument, you can get Amari Cooper and DK Metcalf between +3,300 and +4,000 odds, so we’ll include them in this “sleeper” group.
Wilson is out there as high as +2,500 odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards. The Jets’ WR1 was 15th in total yards at 1,103 last season along with four touchdowns, and that was enough to win 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Obviously, his ceiling is so much higher in 2023. Like doing mushrooms in a blacked-out bunker high.
New York didn’t bring in Aaron Rodgers to run the ball, so expect Gang Green to chuck it. They did that last season, throwing at the fourth-highest rate, but that had more to do with playing from behind than the quality of the quarterback, which gets a massive upgrade in Rodgers.
Pick: Garrett Wilson (+2,200 at bet365)
Long shots
And then there’s everyone else. Any receiver priced +4,000 or bigger falls in our “long shot” category.
This includes guys like Keenan Allen, Calvin Ridley, Christian Watson and DeVonta Smith priced in the 40/1 to 50/1 range. Other notables out there north of +4,000 include Jerry Jeudy, D.J. Moore, Mike Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, and DeAndre Hopkins, even though he hasn’t even signed with a team yet.
Allen is the top receiver for an offense that finished second in passing yards last season, and those numbers will only go up with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore calling the shots.
Quarterback Justin Herbert averaged a criminal 6.8 yards per attempt in 2022 under the cautious playcalling of former OC Joe Lombardi. Now the Bolts are opening up the playbook, and it’s Allen on the end of those longer throws. If he can stay healthy.
Allen played in only 10 games last season, finishing with 752 yards on 66 receptions — an average of 11.4 yards per catch. However, he was 13th in total yardage over 16 games in 2021, and with Moore stretching the field, there’s a very high ceiling for Los Angeles’ air attack.
Pick: Keenan Allen (+4,000 at FanDuel)
