Best NFL Milestone Bets for Week 5: Rice Goes Wild vs Vikings

5+ receptions

I hit the London game with a Bijan Robinson milestone last week for a +300 winner, and am going back to the U.K. for my first milestone of Week 5.

This Sunday morning, I’m taking Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid to catch at least five passes at +320 for one unit, and to go for six or more receptions for 0.3 units at +675. 

I already highlighted the upside of Kincaid this week in my Jaguars vs. Bills preview, where the Dalton Kincaid odds on 4+ receptions moved from +170 to +155. I have basically laddered the emerging TE from four catches to six catches and am loving every bit of it.

First, Kincaid out-snapped Dawson Knox last week for the first time this season, as the veteran ran just 12 routes and had one target in Week 4. Knox was also limited with a quad injury on Thursday before getting a full practice in on Friday. 

Next is the rookie’s high catch rate. Kincaid has caught 15 of his 17 targets on the season because he runs short routes. His average depth of target is just three yards, and with him running half of his routes in the slot, he has some big matchup advantages vs. this Jaguars defense. Kincaid has at least four catches in three of his four games this year. 

Jacksonville is without starting linebacker Devin Lloyd, who is one of their better coverage linebackers, while Kincaid has six inches and 50 pounds over slot corner Tre Herndon. The Jags are also a very generous team to opposing TEs, giving up an average line of 5.8/65.2/0.5. Jonnu Smith caught all six of his targets last week vs. the Jags for 95 yards, and three other TEs have topped their yardage and reception totals vs. them this year. 

With an expanding role, this could be Kincaid’s showcase game.

Dalton Kincaid prop: 5+ receptions (+320 at bet365) 

75+ receiving yards

DeAndre Hopkins is as healthy as he’s been all year. He's getting a near-30% target share and has a great matchup vs. a Colts secondary that is without its best coverage corner in Dallis Flowers. Hopkins’ 75+ receiving yard milestone is the play for one unit at +250.

Hopkins enters Week 5 with no mid-week injury designation other than veteran rest and looks to be past the early-season ankle injury that had him questionable heading into each weekend. 

The Titans wide-out leads the team with a very promising 29% target share and could see even more action his way with Treylon Burks out. Tennessee runs at the 10th-highest rate, but Hopkins is the go-to on passing downs and has nearly 40% of the team’s air yards.

It’s also great timing for the veteran receiver as the Colts lost their best coverage corner last week and have been weak against the pass all season. The reshuffling of the secondary will only benefit Hopkins, as the Colts are allowing over 16 catches for nearly 200 yards per game to opposing WRs, which are both Bottom-10 marks.

This game could also feature some scoring. The Colts play at one of the fastest paces in the league, and this total has been bet up from 41.5 to 43.5 and could close at 44. 

Hopkins hasn’t topped 65 yards yet this year, but that has also helped keep the DeAndre Hopkins odds down this week. THE BLITZ is projecting 73.29 yards, making this a very close coin toss at solid plus money.

DeAndre Hopkins prop: 75+ receiving yards (+250 at bet365)

50+ receiving yards

When THE BLITZ is projecting a receiver to get 51.02 receiving yards and his 50-plus milestone is paying +230, you know it’s going into the weekly column. 

I've already hit Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice for a score in my weekly touchdown article, but with a receiving total of just 32.5 yards and THE BLITZ loving him, I’m double-dipping for sure. It was just two weeks ago I hit him for 25+ yards at +210, which shows his progress within the offense.

Rice leads all K.C. wide receivers in yards, targets, and receptions. The ball is spread around in the offense but the rookie is gaining trust, getting more reps, and is the No. 2 passing option behind Travis Kelce. 

The Vikings are also a great matchup. They blitz at the highest rate in the league and leave their DBs in a lot of one-on-one coverage that Rice can exploit. On the season, opposing wide receivers are averaging 18.5 catches and over 220 yards per game vs. the Vikes, which are both tied for the highest marks in the league. 

Rice is getting targeted on 30% of his routes and after a down game last week in prime time, it could be a big game from Patrick Mahomes vs. this defense in an indoor setting. 

The Rashee Rice odds on 75+ yards is +700 and his 100+ yards is +1,550. I’m going a full unit on the 50+ at +230 and 0.3 units on his 100+. Due to his lack of big volume, I’m a little hesitant to ladder him other than a sprinkle on the century at serious odds. 

Rashee Rice prop: 50+ receiving yards (+230 at bet365)