Lions vs Packers Sunday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Lions Not Taken Down Easily

Detroit may not control its own fate by the time SNF kicks off, but the Lions have played hard all season, and won't close on a weak note against their Green Bay rivals. See why our NFL picks like the dogs to fight Sunday night.

Last Updated: Jan 8, 2023 4:54 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

The NFL regular season wraps up on Sunday night with a win-or-go-home matchup between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.

The Packers would clinch a playoff spot with a victory while the Lions can make the postseason with a win and a Seahawks loss earlier in the day.

The Lions beat the Packers earlier this season in Detroit but oddsmakers are expecting them to come up short at Lambeau in Week 18, with NFL betting lines opening with the Packers as 5.5-point home favorites. Here are my best free Lions vs. Packers NFL picks and predictions for January 5.

Also, be sure to check out Josh Inglis' favorite SNF player props, as well as Robert Criscola's Aaron Rodgers spotlight props

Lions vs Packers best odds

Lions vs Packers picks and predictions

The Lions could already be eliminated from postseason play if the Seahawks beat the Rams earlier in the day (which they are expected to do as -270 faves on the moneyline).

However, even if this game doesn't matter to Detroit for playoff purposes, don't expect Dan Campbell and the Lions to give less than 100%. This is a team that has been playing hard all season and wasn't even supposed to be in playoff contention after a 1-6 start to the year. 

With the exception of an ugly performance against the Panthers on Christmas Eve, the Lions have been terrific over the last two months, going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their previous nine games.

The Packers have also looked sharp lately going 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games. However, the first two wins during that span came against terrible Bears and Rams squads and they benefitted from four turnovers by the Vikings and Dolphins in each of the last two weeks. 

The Lions have turned the ball over a league-low 15 times this season and have given the ball away just once in their last three games. 

Aaron Rodgers has been affected by a broken thumb since November and his top target during the second half of the season has been Christian Watson, who is fighting through a hip injury and had just a single catch last week. 

Expect the Lions to limit turnovers and keep things close against a Packers team that won't be able to take advantage of Detroit's weakness in the secondary. 

My best bet: Lions +5 (-110 at bet365)

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Lions vs Packers spread analysis

The Lions have been on a tear ever since beating the Packers 15-9 at Ford Field in Week 9. They've won seven of their last nine games and are fresh off a 41-10 victory against the Bears on New Year's Day.

They rushed for 265 yards in that contest while quarterback Jared Goff was an efficient 21-29 for 255 yards and three scores. That balanced attack has been the strength of this surprisingly competitive Detroit team with the Lions sixth in the NFL in DVOA offense. 

That said, they are just 28th in the league in DVOA defense and have struggled against both the run and pass. They have made some improvements and are 21st in the league in EPA/play on defense since Week 9 after ranking last in the league through the first eight weeks of the season. 

The Packers have won four games in a row and control their own destiny in the playoff race. They're coming off a 41-17 beatdown of Minnesota last week but the Vikings shot themselves in the foot with four turnovers. The Packers rushed for 163 yards on 33 carries in that contest but Rodgers had just 159 passing yards. 

It's been a tough season for Rodgers, who has been banged up and has been surrounded by a weak group of receivers. The future Hall of Fame quarterback is averaging just 199.9 passing yards per game over his last seven games and his 6.8 yards per attempt is the second-lowest number of his career. 

On defense, the Pack have been decent against the pass but have been brutal against the run allowing 5.0 yards per carry.

Lions vs Packers Over/Under analysis

Although it should be a typically frigid January evening in Lambeau on Sunday, wind on the field should be minimal and skies are expected to be clear. Don't expect the weather to play a factor but both offenses will likely rely on their ground games and try to control the clock regardless.

The Lions prefer shorter throws in the passing game and both teams will likely trying to take advantage of weak run defense from the other squad.

The Packers are 31st in the league in defensive rush DVOA while the Lions are 27th. Although the Lions played extremely well against the run in Weeks 14 and 15, they regressed to their usual pathetic selves the last two weeks by allowing both the Bears and Panthers to rush for at least 200 yards. That's bad news against a Packers offense that ranks third in the league in rush DVOA. 

That said, Green Bay's stop unit also has a tough matchup against Detroit's stout offensive line and the running back duo of Jamaal Wiliams and D'Andre Swift.

Lions vs Packers same-game parlay

Rodgers Under 249.5 passing yards (-105) + Jones Over 64.5 rushing yards (+105) + St. Brown Over 64.5 receiving yards (-140) + Lions Over 20.5 Total Points (-135)

Rodgers has gone well below this number in seven straight games. With the Lions unable to stop the run, I'm expecting him to be handing off the ball to Jones, who should go over his modest rushing total. 

The Lions have the offense to keep pace and have scored more than 20 points in seven of their last eight games. St. Brown has been their most reliable weapon and is averaging 89.1 receiving yards per game over his last eight contests.

SNF SGP Odds: +1,000 at DraftKings

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Lions vs Packers betting trend to know

The Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Packers.

Lions vs Packers game info

Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Date: Sunday, January 8, 2022
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Packers -5.5, 48

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