The 3-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are fresh off an early bye and welcome the Detroit Lions to Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. Talk as much trash as you want about the level of competition in the NFC North and South but these teams are still on top of their respective divisions heading into this Week 6 odds showdown.
NFL odds hit the board with the Lions as 3-point road favorites and the total opened at 45.5 before slimming to 43.5. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Lions vs. Buccaneers on October 15.
Lions vs Buccaneers odds
Lions vs Buccaneers predictions
The Detroit Lions actually look like they might be for real this year. They've gone 4-1 SU and ATS and are coming off a 42-24 rout of the Panthers where they covered as 10-point home favorites — the most points they've laid since 2017. That said, I'm pumping the brakes on the Lions hype train and think this could be a tough spot for them.
I'm especially not sold on this porous Lions pass defense that benefitted from multiple key drops from Chiefs receivers in the season opener before getting torched by the Seahawks in Week 2.
Sure they've looked good in their last three games but those contests have come against three of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. They faced Atlanta's Desmond Ridder who is just 23rd in the league in pass efficiency rating in Week 3 before going up against Jordan Love and Bryce Young who rank 28th and 29th respectively in that category.
Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield is no Tom Brady but he's eighth in the league in pass efficiency rating (101.5) and has led the Bucs to a 3-1 SU and ATS mark. Tampa Bay's only defeat came against the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles so it isn't a terrible loss to have on a resume.
The Buccaneers defense is sixth in the league in EPA/play and has enough playmakers at every level to slow down a Detroit attack that can be a bit conservative at times. When you also factor in Tampa Bay's home-field advantage along with the additional rest of a bye week, I'm leaning towards the Bucs with the points.
That said, I am keeping a close eye on the status of Bucs receiver Mike Evans. The four-time Pro Bowl suffered a hamstring injury in the second quarter of Tampa Bay's Week 4 win against the Saints. Evans was limited in practice on Monday but was a no-show on Wednesday and his presence will determine if the Bucs can exploit a vulnerable and banged-up Lions secondary.
My best bet: Buccaneers +3 (+100 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Lions vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
Buccaneers +3.5 (-125)
Both teams to score 15+ points (-135)
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 73.5 receiving yards (-110)
Detroit's offense has been efficient ever since Ben Johnson took over as offensive coordinator before the 2022 season. The Lions are eighth in the league in offensive EPA and Jared Goff has the highest offensive rating in the league among quarterbacks. They should be able to hit the 15-point plateau but will have a very tough time keeping the Bucs below that total as well.
The Bucs defense under Todd Bowles tends to play a lot of 2-shell coverages which limits deep passes but allows passes across the middle. Amon-Ra St. Brown is Detroit's best receiver and he thrives in that part of the field. While St. Brown missed last week with an abdominal injury, he's been a full participant in practice this week and could see even more targets with tight end Sam LaPorta hindered by a calf injury.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Lions vs Buccaneers spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Lions at -3 but the vig for that spread had moved to -120 as of Wednesday night suggesting an eventual move to -3.5. If you're looking to back the Bucs in this spot it would be wise to wait for the spread to go past that key number before betting it. The total has also seen movement, dropping from 45.5 to 42.5.
The Bucs are 3-1 SU and ATS with their only loss coming against the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. They are fresh off a bye after beating the Saints 26-9 in Week 4. Meanwhile, the Lions are 4-1 SU and ATS and have won their last three games by double digits.
These sides are among the few teams in the league that rank in the Top 10 in EPA on both sides of the ball. The Bucs are sixth in EPA/play on defense and 10th on offense while the Lions are eighth on offense and 10th on defense.
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Lions vs Buccaneers game info
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, October 15, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Buccaneers +3, 45.5 |
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