The Cincinnati Bengals will welcome back franchise quarterback Joe Burrow for an AFC North bout with the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday, November 27.
My top NFL picks surrounding Joe Burrow's odds call for the two-time Pro Bowler to air it out on Thanksgiving in a high-scoring tilt with the Ravens.
Joe Burrow prop pick
Joe Burrow best bet: Over 36.5 pass attempts (-110 at bet365)
The 3-8 Cincinnati Bengals aren’t bringing back their franchise quarterback after a 10-week layoff following toe surgery unless Joe Burrow is healthy.
Cincinnati is also sending out one of the worst statistical defenses in the NFL, so I’m anticipating the Bengals attacking through the air early and often again this week with Burrow back behind center.
Cincy backup Joe Flacco averaged 41.7 pass attempts across his six starts with the club, and he topped 40 in four of those games.
Of course, the Bengals are also a sizable road underdog Thursday, and the Baltimore Ravens are the betting favorites to win the AFC North.
Still, the Ravens have benefited from facing weak passing attacks and underwhelming quarterbacks the past three weeks:
- Week 10: J.J. McCarthy
- Week 11: Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders
- Week 12: Tyrod Taylor
So, with the Ravens facing an actual QB, I’m expecting Burrow and the Bengals to have success through the air and extend drives in the Thursday nightcap.
Finally, let’s not forget, Burrow aired it out 39 times in Week 5 against Baltimore and another 56 times in the Week 10 rematch last year.
Joe Burrow same-game parlay
Over 36.5 pass attempts
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Ja'Marr Chase Over 91.5 receiving yards
Burrow threw for multiple scores in 13 of 17 games last season, which included nine touchdowns through the highlighted two meetings with the Ravens.
Additionally, the Bengals have just five rushing touchdowns all season despite converting red-zone trips into touchdowns at the 10th-highest clip in the league.
Head coach Zac Taylor is going to lean on Burrow’s arm for points.
Burrow and Taylor are also going to be leaning on Ja’Marr Chase with Tee Higgins (concussion) sidelined. Chase posted a monster five-game stretch from Week 5 through 9 — consisting of 50 receptions for 567 yards — and having Burrow back will be music to his ears.
Chase hit the receiving triple crown last year with NFL highs in receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708) and receiving touchdowns (17) with Burrow also force feeding him a league-high 175 targets.
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