There’s no debating it – the New England Patriots are for real and they’ll look to keep rolling as the biggest favorite of the week against the New York Jets in the Week 11 edition of Thursday Night Football.
After their seventh straight win, the Patriots are 1.5-point favorites, while the game total is 43.5. However, my early Jets vs Patriots predictions have the visitors keeping this game from getting too out of hand.
These NFL picks also think we could be in for a higher-scoring game than the total might suggest on Thursday, November 13.
Jets vs Patriots predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early TNF spread pick: Jets +11.5
Sure, the New York Jets continue to be a laughingstock in 2025, but they are scrappy and have avoided getting blown out for the most part, with five of their seven losses being within one score.
New York enters on a rare two-game win streak, where it's played inspired football vs. the Bengals and Browns. While they have nothing to play for and management waved the white flag at the trade deadline, the effort is still clearly there despite the lack of talent in yet another dead-end season.
I’ve been wondering when the 2025 New England Patriots would hit a wall, and expected it to happen this past week in Tampa Bay vs. a Bucs team coming off a bye. However, New England dominated in many areas, most notably winning the yards per play battle 7.4 to 5.6. Could a letdown spot on a short week be on the horizon?
While the Patriots have a clear edge on the offensive side of the ball, some season-long defensive numbers might surprise you. The Jets come out ahead in yards per play allowed and red-zone defense, and have been much better against the pass, as New England is allowing many big plays through the air.
In short, the Jets may be a mess, but they’re not a pushover. They’ve stayed competitive most weeks, are still playing hard despite a lost season, and match up better defensively than people think. That gives them just enough fight to keep this one respectable against New England.
Early TNF total pick: Over 43.5
While the Jets on the spread is more of a true lean than a best bet, I will be pulling the trigger on the Over on Thursday night.
Many likely associate the Jets' game with boredom and low scores, but they’re undeserving of that reputation, as 12 of their last 16 games have gone Over the total.
Specific to this total of 43.5, six of the nine have topped it. Meanwhile, the Patriots are on a nice Over run of their own, with it hitting in four straight games.
New England’s offense is red hot, scoring 28 or more points in three of its last four games, while quarterback Drake Maye surprisingly sits atop the MVP futures odds board.
It’s not hard to make a case for the Pariots offense to go off in front of the home fans, but expect the Jets to have some openings as well.
New England’s red-zone defense has been awful. It ranks dead last in opponent red-zone touchdown conversion percentage, and the Pats have allowed the third-most pass plays of 20 or more yards.
This total feels too low given how both teams are trending. The Patriots are rolling offensively, and the Jets have quietly been part of several higher-scoring games.
Jets vs Patriots odds
- Jets vs. Patriots spread: Patriots -11.5
- Jets vs. Patriots moneyline: Jets +550, Patriots -800
- Jets vs. Patriots Over/Under: 43.5
How to watch Jets vs Patriots
- Jets vs. Patriots matchup
- Date: Thursday, November 13, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Foxboro, MA
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
- TV: Prime Video
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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