The Detroit Lions start the week as 6.5-point favorites as they prepare to host the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon.
Both teams have questions to answer, but I'm backing Detroit to cover the current spread in my Jets vs. Lions predictions below.
Let's take a look at my early NFL picks for Sunday, Sept. 27.
Jets vs Lions predictions
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Jets vs Lions spread pick: Lions -6.5
Are we still dealing with the same old New York Jets? It looked like it in Week 2, when they blew a 17-7 lead in a 20-17 overtime loss to the Green Bay Packers.
New York's defense still looks legit, but the offense sputtered against its first real taste of adversity, totaling just 285 yards against Green Bay. That won't be enough to deal with a Detroit Lions team that has averaged 362 yards and 31.0 ppg on offense this season.
Jared Goff has the Lions offense averaging 0.19 EPA per passing play, and that level of efficiency isn't going to disappear even against a good Jets defense. I'm taking the Lions to cover at -6.5 at up to 55%, but the number is key; at -7.5, I would instead take the Jets at around 50%.
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Early Jets vs Lions total pick: Under 48.5
The Jets truly have been outstanding on defense so far. They've allowed just 4.0 yards per play, third-best in the NFL, and rank sixth in EPA per defensive play (-0.21). New York may have blown a lead against the Packers, but it held Green Bay to just 199 total yards.
That's enough for me to expect the Jets to hold the Lions below the 31 points they've scored in each of their first two games. And while the Lions have given up an embarrassing 457.5 yards per game on defense, Geno Smith and the New York offense haven't shown any signs that they can even approach that kind of number.
It's hard to see enough points in this game — especially on the Jets' side — to hit this total. I'm taking the Under and would do so at totals down to 47.5 points.
Jets vs Lions odds
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- Jets vs Lions spread: Lions -6.5
- Jets vs Lions moneyline: Jets 28%, Lions 72%
- Jets vs Lions Over/Under: 48.5
How to watch Jets vs Lions
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Detroit, MI
- Venue: Ford Field
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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