Tonight's top Jaguars vs. Ravens computer picks headline Week 9 Thursday Night Football, as the 5-2 Jaguars visit the 4-4 Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, with Jacksonville a heavy road favorite and undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano starting for Baltimore in place of Lamar Jackson.
Our eight player-prop picks span both sides of the ball, from Trevor Lawrence's interceptions to Fagnano's passing yards and Derrick Henry's rushing total. See what our Covers prop projections suggest, and check out more NFL picks for Week 9.
Jaguars vs Ravens computer picks
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 Jaguars |
 Ravens |
|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence u0.5 interceptions 54% |
Joe Fagnano o174.5 passing yards 43% |
| Trevor Lawrence o3.5 rushing attempts 47% |
Derrick Henry o69.5 rushing yards 47% |
| Parker Washington anytime touchdown 39% |
Mark Andrews o2.5 receptions 56% |
| Bhayshul Tuten anytime touchdown 48% |
Zay Flowers o49.5 receiving yards 50% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jaguars vs Ravens prop analysis
Jaguars computer picks
Trevor Lawrence Under 0.5 interceptions (54%)
Projection: 0.39 interceptions
The Jaguars are heavy road favorites, and Trevor Lawrence has thrown four interceptions in seven games, so he's gone without one in at least three of them. That includes last week's 10-for-14, 210-yard, three-touchdown win over the Colts, when Jacksonville did not need him to throw much. Our model projects 0.39 interceptions, below the 0.5 threshold, which supports the Under.
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Trevor Lawrence Over 3.5 rushing attempts (47%)
Projection: 4.53 rushing attempts
This is more a model-driven lean than a usage-driven one. Lawrence is averaging 2.9 rushing attempts per game and has reached four only once this season, in a win over New England. Our model projects 4.53 attempts, more than a full carry above the 3.5 line, and Kalshi's 47% price shows the market is not convinced.
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Parker Washington anytime touchdown (39%)
Projection: 0.48 touchdowns
Parker Washington has scored the first touchdown of the game twice this season and has eight targets inside the 20-yard line, one more than Jakobi Meyers. Baltimore has allowed touchdowns on 83.3% of opponents' red-zone trips over its last three games, which should give Jacksonville plenty of scoring chances. Our model projects 0.48 touchdowns, a separate figure from Kalshi's 39% price.
🔥 Trade Washington anytime touchdown now
Bhayshul Tuten anytime touchdown (48%)
Projection: 0.59 touchdowns
Bhayshul Tuten has six touchdowns in seven games, three rushing and three receiving, including a rushing and a receiving score against Indianapolis last week. He is questionable with a foot and ankle injury, did not practice this week, and is a game-time decision. Our model projects 0.59 touchdowns if he plays, and Kalshi lists the anytime market at 48%.
🔥 Trade Tuten anytime touchdown now
Ravens computer picks
Joe Fagnano Over 174.5 passing yards (43%)
Projection: 192.64 passing yards
With Lamar Jackson on injured reserve and Tyler Huntley out, undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano will make his first career start for the Ravens. He completed 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards in relief at Buffalo and wore a brace on his right ankle in practice this week. Baltimore is a heavy home underdog, which should force him to throw, and our model projects 192.64 passing yards, more than 18 above the line.
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Derrick Henry Over 69.5 rushing yards (47%)
Projection: 82.88 rushing yards
Derrick Henry is averaging 79.0 rushing yards per game and has topped 69.5 in four of eight outings. The risk is game script, as he had just 11 carries in last week's 36-10 loss at Buffalo, but he did score a rushing touchdown in that game. Our model projects 82.88 rushing yards, more than 13 above the line.
🔥 Trade Henry rushing yards now
Mark Andrews Over 2.5 receptions (56%)
Projection: 3.71 receptions
Mark Andrews has a 19.2% target share this season, which ranks in the 91st percentile, and the Covers model expects around 5.7 targets tonight. With a rookie making his first start, short, high-percentage throws to a veteran tight end are a reasonable path to this number. Our model projects 3.71 receptions, more than a full catch above the 2.5 line.
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Zay Flowers Over 49.5 receiving yards (50%)
Projection: 67.76 receiving yards
Zay Flowers has topped this line in six of the seven games he's played, averaging 86.9 receiving yards on 40 catches and three touchdowns. He's gone for 100+ yards three times, with 150 at Indianapolis, 118 against Tennessee, and 137 against Cincinnati. Last week's zero-catch game at Buffalo looks like the outlier, and our model projects 67.76 receiving yards on about 9.2 targets, roughly 18 above the line.
🔥 Trade Flowers receiving yards now
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