A new season is always a fresh start in the NFL but for the Washington Commanders, it’s their opening game with a new name for the franchise.
The scheduling gods have been kind to the Commanders, giving them an opening game that is winnable and in which they’re favorites, but should they be?
Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for the Jaguars vs. Commanders, with kickoff on September 11.
Jaguars vs Commanders best odds
Jaguars vs Commanders picks and predictions
Both the Jaguars and Commanders come into this looking to improve on what we saw last season. The Jaguars won just three games and the Commanders managed seven. That doesn’t really tell the full story for the Commanders, however, as they've yet to find their franchise quarterback.
Carson Wentz is their eighth QB in the past three years and Ron Rivera will hope that he can get him back to what we saw in that rookie season. Doug Pederson has yet to win a game and he’s already a far better hire than Urban Meyer. It’s hard to think of a worse coaching hire in the past decade and Pederson’s biggest task in this first season is to continue to rehabilitate the culture of the team, which took such a bad turn with Meyer in charge.
His other major task is helping Trevor Lawrence fulfill his potential. We didn’t see much from Lawrence in the preseason but there have been reports of his improvement in practice. He won’t get much of an easier start to a season than this, as the Commanders allowed an average of 254.9 passing yards per game last year — ranking 29th in the NFL.
Washington is still without Chase Young, who is the key edge rusher on the roster which makes life easier for Lawrence. We were robbed of a chance to see his connection with former Clemson teammate Travis Etienne last year but it’s expected that the running back will be a key part of the offense, as will the offseason addition of Christian Kirk at wide receiver.
It’s hard to back the Commanders when their offense is still a huge unknown. We know about the brilliance of Terry McLaurin and the potential of Jahan Dotson, but we still don’t know which version of Wentz we’ll see in Washington.
I’m one of the doubters who believes we'll never see the old version of Wentz again. Then there’s the situation at running back, where Antonio Gibson will be starting due to the absence of rookie Brian Robinson Jr. on Sunday.
With so much unknown on the offensive side of the ball and a defense that is missing their star, it makes the Jaguars winning outright look like the best play.
My best bet: Jaguars moneyline (+120 at PointsBet)
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Jaguars vs Commanders betting preview
Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
Sunday sees the Jaguars travel to FedEx Field to face the team formally known as the Washington Football Team. This will be the team’s first regular season game since they announced their rebranding to the Washington Commanders.
Alongside that narrative, we also have the reunion of Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz who are both starting their seasons with new teams. Wentz, in particular, will have bad memories of the Jaguars, with his disastrous performance against them in Week 18 last season costing the Colts a spot in the playoffs.
He turned the ball over twice that day and can’t afford to replicate that here. Given we’re taking the Jaguars to get the road win, it won’t surprise you to know that I’d take the Jaguars and the points here.
Over/Under analysis
The total points line for this game has remained at 43.5 since opening and it’s easy to understand why. Both quarterbacks weren't good last season and neither offense was overly dynamic.
Given the lack of elite signal callers on either team, the Under looks very attractive here. The stats back it up too. Over the past 16 games, the Under is 13-3 when the Jaguars have been an underdog.
The Under also looks likely when looking at recent Commanders' trends, it’s 5-0 in their past five home games and 9-3 in their previous 12 games overall. For those reasons I’d recommend backing Under 43.5 if you decide to have a wager on this market.
Jaguars vs Commanders game info
• Location: FedEx Field, Landover, MD
• Date: Sunday, September 11, 2022
• Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Jaguars vs Commanders key injuries
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Jaguars vs Commanders weather
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Jaguars vs Commanders betting trend to know
The Commanders are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in September. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Commanders.
