NFL Futures Fund & Picks Week 4: Mahomes for NFL MVP

Patrick Mahomes might be the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year, but I think it's time to think bigger about which award we should be backing the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback for, as I'm adding an NFL MVP trade to the portfolio.

I already have the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl in my NFL Futures Fund portfolio, and I'm doubling down by adding Mahomes for NFL MVP. Josh Allen isn't going to run away with this market.

I'm willing to make a trade at Kalshi that Mahomes will win another NFL MVP award, and a lot of that has to do with his probability sitting at 7% on one of our best prediction market apps.

Each week, my NFL Futures Fund will identify the teams and players worth buying, fading, holding, or targeting as long shots based on the latest NFL odds.

NFL Week 4 futures portfolio strategy

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, use our odds converter.

Future	Probability
Patrick Mahomes NFL MVP  Buy	7%
Lions Super Bowl  Fade	4%
Chiefs Super Bowl  Hold	8%
Ja'Marr Chase Receiving Touchdowns Leader  Long shot	3%

Start trading with Kalshi today!

Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!

Sign Up Now at

*Eligible U.S. locations only

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Buy: Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP

• Kalshi probability: 7%
• Key metric: Projected win probability is 10.7%
• Next catalyst: Week 4 vs. Raiders

It always comes down to the price when we're putting a buy tag on a probability in the futures market. That will always be the most important factor, and Patrick Mahomes at 7% to win NFL MVP presents a probability gap we can exploit, as I price him closer to 10.7%.

That's a pretty sizable edge in the NFL MVP market, and it comes on a brand-name player who the market will have no problem running with the narrative that he can win the award.

With 812 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns through three weeks, Mahomes is already among the league leaders. He now gets an indoor game against the Las Vegas Raiders, who are 3-0, but it's not like they got there because of their defense. They just allowed Tyler Shough to throw four touchdowns against them.

Mahomes has a great opportunity to pad his stats against the Raiders, head into the bye week at 4-0, and put us in a favorable position with the 7% buy point.

Fade: Lions to win Super Bowl

• Kalshi probability: 4%
• Key concern: Injuries to secondary
• Next catalyst: Week 4 vs. Panthers

I'm out.

I can't hold this probability any longer. The Detroit Lions' defense, particularly their secondary, is simply too banged up and continues to give up explosive plays through the air. Geno Smith just walked into Ford Field and went 31-for-37 for 321 passing yards and three touchdowns.

I bought the Lions at 4%, and I can get out right now at 4% with no blood. I think that's the correct play. My initial plan was to hold the Lions through Week 5, with the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals on the schedule, but with the way this defense is playing, they could easily lose one of those games and leave me holding a probability with no exit plan for the rest of the season.

The Lions aren't Super Bowl contenders, and I have an opportunity to bail without taking a hit to the portfolio. I'm taking it.

Hold: Chiefs to win Super Bowl

• Kalshi probability: 8%
• Key metric: Projected win probability is 9.8%
• Next catalyst: Week 4 vs. Raiders

We bought the Chiefs at 7% last week, and they're now at 8%. We're on our way to the exact outcome I was hunting for: a 4-0 record heading into the bye week, where the media and market begin to believe in another Chiefs Super Bowl run.

I mean, why wouldn't they? This also ties into the Mahomes NFL MVP investment, but running back Kenneth Walker has unlocked this offense. With Walker's speed and outside-zone ability, the Chiefs have started putting Mahomes under center more often and incorporating more play-action passes into the offense. 

Mahomes used to run almost everything out of the shotgun. These new play designs are freezing linebackers, giving Mahomes clean pockets to operate from, and allowing him to pick defenses apart. Just ask the Miami Dolphins, against whom Mahomes went 14-for-14 on play-action passes.

With head coach Andy Reid running the offense, Eric Bieniemy back holding the play sheet, and Walker opening up the passing game for Mahomes, I'm all in on the Chiefs. I have no problem continuing to hold a probability that I don't believe is finished moving in our favor.

Long shot: Ja'Marr Chase to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns

• Kalshi probability: 3%
• Upside metric: Projected for 9.1 more receiving touchdowns
• Next catalyst: Week 4 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sometimes you see a long shot that needs very little convincing as to why it should have your attention. This is one of those probabilities. I'm not highlighting a player we're unsure is even capable of accomplishing this feat. We know Ja'Marr Chase has it in him. He led the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 17 in 2024, four more than the next closest player.

The only reason you're seeing Chase available at 3% is because Jaxon Smith-Njigba is trading at 30% after his hot start with six touchdowns. I think you can use Smith-Njigba's start to your advantage and take it as an opportunity to grab Chase at 3%.

Chase has three receiving touchdowns on the season but is projected for 9.1 TDs the rest of the way, which is the second-best projection among all players. The second-best projection in the league, yet you're trading at 3% with Joe Burrow as your quarterback, which elevates Chase's ceiling. Yeah, you have my attention.

My NFL futures portfolio tracker

The Kenneth Walker buy at 58% to rush for 1,250+ yards is one we're going to continue to hold. He has us in a great spot, as he needs to average only 63.6 rushing yards per game the rest of the way to clear that number.

Malik Nabers for Comeback Player of the Year is a tougher one for us. He was trading at 9% heading into Week 2 but has dropped all the way to 1% following the injury to QB Jaxson Dart. We're not going to sell at 1% because there's no point. I do think we have multiple outs that could, at the very least, get this back to our buy point and allow us to sell our position.

For starters, the Giants just traded for J.J. McCarthy, so hopefully he peppers Nabers with a ton of targets. The other interesting out is that Mahomes leads this market at 68%. If Mahomes makes a push for NFL MVP, would voters also consider him for Comeback Player of the Year? That narrative could take off, sending more probability into the market and potentially helping us with Nabers.

The bottom line is that we need better statistics from Nabers, and we really have nothing to lose by waiting this out. We're certainly not selling at 1%.

The table below tracks when each future entered the portfolio and how its price has moved since it was added.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic