We’re onto the second Sunday of the NFL season, and we’ve studied the tape and looked at all the data to come up with the three players that we believe will open the scoring in their respective matchups.
Here are my best three NFL picks and weekly touchdown props for Sunday, September 14.
Best Week 2 first TD scorer props
Boutte (+1700 at DraftKings)
Gainwell (+1100 at DraftKings)
Dobbins (+750 at DraftKings)
TD prop #1: Kayshon Boutte first TD scorer
When looking at first touchdown scorers, there’s one thing we always want to do, and that’s target players playing against poor teams. After the Dolphins got humbled 33-8 by the Colts last weekend, we must back a New England Patriot to open the scoring this week.
The running backs are obviously far shorter prices, but Kayshon Boutte leaps off the screen as a great value play here.
He didn’t score last week, but caught six of eight passing attempts for 103 yards, and with his chemistry growing with Drake Maye, there’s a chance that he could realize the potential he had in college. In his past four games, we’ve seen him exceed 90 yards on three occasions, have five or more targets every game, and score two touchdowns.
TD prop #2: Kenneth Gainwell first TD scorer
It’s hard to believe that it’s 2025 and we’re still discussing Kenneth Gainwell's touchdown, but there was enough in the Pittsburgh Steelers' win over the Jets to suggest that it’s a viable wager. With Jaylen Warren in town and the team drafting Kaleb Johnson, we didn’t think Gainwell would have much part to play, but we were wrong.
Warren might have been the running back to score the touchdown, but he only had four more carries than Gainwell’s seven, with Johnson getting just the one. Gainwell had two more targets than Warren and actually led the running back corps in snaps with 29 to Warren’s 25, with Johnson on a very low two.
The Seattle Seahawks were poor last week, scoring just one touchdown, and Gainwell is the value play to open the scoring here with odds of nearly double Warren, despite seeing a very similar workload last week.
TD prop #3: J.K. Dobbins first TD scorer
The final First TD scorer is the shortest but no less tantalising, and that’s J.K. Dobbins of the Denver Broncos. Firstly, the Broncos face an Indianapolis Colts team that overachieved last week and will surely come down to earth with a bump against a team with a far stronger defense than they faced last Sunday.
Then there’s Dobbins himself with the Broncos, starting his career in style with 63 yards and a touchdown. When you look at the opportunity, this backfield belongs to Dobbins, at least for the time being.
In Week 1, Dobbins had 18 touches, compared to just seven for RJ Harvey and six for Tyler Badie. Given he’s getting more carries and targets than the rest of the running back room combined, and they’re playing a Colts team, who might just have faced the Dolphins at the right time, we have to back Dobbins to score the opening touchdown of this game.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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