We’ve got a smaller NFL odds slate than usual on Sunday, with Week 16 odds more spread around for the festive period. With that said, we still have plenty of action to wager on.
I looked through the "First Touchdown Scorer" markets to find three players who offer the perfect mix of value and opportunity to deliver some healthy returns.
Here are my free NFL picks regarding that moment for the upcoming weekend of action!
Week 16 first touchdown scorer props
- Aaron Jones (+800 at BetMGM)
- Chris Rodriguez Jr. (+1,100 at BetMGM)
- Amari Cooper (+1,000 at BetMGM)
Picks made on December 22 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best Week 16 first TD scorer props
Prop bet #1: Target Mr. Jones
Aaron Jones' odds are high because he's yet to score first while only having three total TDs on the year. It’s been a season of change for the Green Bay Packers and Jones hasn’t been helped by injuries. Last week he returned and led the Packers in carries against the Bucs. He only had 13 rushing attempts and another four receptions in the loss, but the game script should be more in his favor against the Panthers.
Nobody in the NFL has allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Panthers — by some margin too — and this has ‘get right game’ written all over it. I think we’re going to see him get a lot of the ball and at +800 to score the first touchdown it feels like value, with the Packers better than their one-point favorite status would imply.
Aaron Jones prop: First touchdown (+800 at BetMGM)
Prop bet #2: Stepping up
Brian Robinson hasn’t played the past two weeks and didn’t practice on Friday, meaning that while he is questionable still, I like Christopher Rodriguez's odds to lead the Washington Commanders backfield again. He had 10 carries in the loss to the Rams but I’d expect more here.
The Jets’ offense is anemic and comes into this game after putting up a goose egg against the Dolphins. As bad as the Commanders are, and they are bad, I think they're far more likely to score the first TD. That said, it’s unlikely to be from their pass catchers, with the Jets’ defense exceptional against the pass. That makes Rodriguez Jr great value at +1100 to open the scoring.
Christopher Rodriguez Jr. prop: First touchdown (+1,100 at BetMGM)
Prop bet #3: Coooooooper
Joe Flacco has done a pretty good job at QB for the Cleveland Browns. The offense isn’t brilliant by any stretch of the imagination but they are capable, and the defense is so good it’s helping them get across the line. I think the Browns easily beat a Texans team without CJ Stroud and it’s Amari Cooper's odds that have caught my eye.
He comes into this fresh on the back of scoring a touchdown and putting up 109 yards against the Bears. but what leaps out is the 22 targets he’s had in the past two games. It’s clear Flacco and Cooper have some chemistry. and if he’s the favorite target then I’m going to back him to get into the end zone first.
Amari Cooper prop: First touchdown (+1,000 at BetMGM)
Not intended for use in MA.
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