A couple of struggling NFC South teams face off on Thursday Night Football, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta has lost seven of its last eight games despite the heroics of running back Bijan Robinson. Meanwhile, the Bucs are 1–4 in their last five, with quarterback Baker Mayfield being kept in check.
See how both players factor into my Falcons vs. Buccaneers player props and NFL picks for December 11.
Falcons vs Buccaneers TNF props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Baker Mayfield |
Under 32.5 passing attempts | -110 |
 Bijan Robinson |
Over 35.5 receiving yards | -115 |
| Rachaad White |
Over 17.5 rushing yards | -110 |
Baker Mayfield Under 32.5 passing attempts (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has been struggling lately. He’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards on 30 or fewer pass attempts in five of his last six games.
What's especially concerning about those numbers is that he played with a negative game script in three of those contests. Mayfield may be more efficient at home on Thursday night, but I expect his passing volume to remain low.
Running back Bucky Irving returned to Tampa Bay's lineup in Week 13 after a two-month absence. Don't be surprised to see the Bucs lean on their rushing attack against an Atlanta Falcons defense that is 26th in the league in success rate against the run.
Bijan Robinson Over 35.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Falcons have lost seven of their last eight games despite the heroics of running back Bijan Robinson.
Although Robinson might have a tough time finding running room against the Buccaneers’ staunch front, Atlanta still needs to get the ball into the hands of their best player, and the passing game might be the way to do that.
Robinson had just two catches for eight yards last week. However, he had eclipsed this number in eight of his previous 10 games. He's averaging 46.3 receiving yards per game, and Tampa Bay has been vulnerable against pass-catching backs.
The Bucs are 31st in DVOA against running backs while allowing a league-high 53.9 receiving yards per game to the position.
Rachaad White Over 16.5 rushing yards (-110)
Bucky Irving returned to Tampa Bay's lineup in Week 13 after missing two months with foot and shoulder injuries. While he will get most of the touches, don't expect the Bucs to phase out Rachaad White, who impressed with his hard-running style and blocking in Irving's absence.
Between Weeks 5 and 11, White averaged 44.7 rushing yards per game, and he will continue to play a role. He was the more efficient runner last week, rushing for 53 yards on 11 carries while Irving had 55 yards on 15 attempts and was shaken up by a hit in the second quarter.
Expect the Bucs to use both backs against a Falcons defense that is 26th in the league in success rate against the run while ranking 24th in rushing yards allowed per game (131.0).
Bet on TNF at bet365!
Bet on Thursday Night Football at bet365, where your wagers are never ordinary! Sign up now and by placing $5 on your first bet, you get $200 in bonus bets — win or lose!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Falcons vs Buccaneers TNF prop betting card
- Mayfield u32.5 passing attempts (-110)
- Robinson o33.5 receiving yards (-115)
- White o16.5 rushing yards (-110)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
