It hasn’t been pretty, but the Philadelphia Eagles’ Super Bowl defense is off to a 3-0 start, and we get a battle of unbeaten teams on Sunday as they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Eagles needed a huge special teams play to sneak past the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, but my NFL picks still put more faith in the Philadelphia offense here than Tampa Bay’s banged-up group.
Though we haven’t seen the best of the Eagles yet, my Top 3 prop picks for this September 28 clash expect Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown to be at the center of the action at Raymond James Stadium.
Read on for my Eagles vs. Buccaneers NFL player props for Sunday, September 28.
Eagles vs Buccaneers props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Saquon Barkley |
Over 2.5 receptions | -112 |
 Baker Mayfield |
Under 220.5 passing yards | -114 |
| A.J. Brown |
Anytime touchdown | +185 |
Prop bet #1: Saquon Barkley Over 2.5 receptions
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense continues to be a lockdown group, so this is a matchup where the Philadelphia Eagles may need to get creative to unleash Saquon Barkley.
Barkley will still see a steady diet of carries, but there’s a case for also setting him up in space to negate the Bucs’ run-stuffers, and that makes the Over on 2.5 catches a value pick.
He finished with 33 receptions in his 16 regular season outings last year – and he’s on pace to beat that number this season, with 10 catches through the first three contests. Though he hasn’t broken a big play on any of those grabs, volume is the name of the game, and Saquon will see his share of third-down snaps given Philly’s backfield setup.
Plus, Tampa Bay has struggled to contain pass-catching running backs, giving up 100 receiving yards to Bijan Robinson in Week 1 and four receptions to Breece Hall last weekend. Barkley has had 5+ targets in two of his first three outings, and that formula feels repeatable on Sunday.
Prop bet #2: Baker Mayfield Under 220.5 passing yards
Baker Mayfield has been in clutch mode this month, starting the season with three straight game-winning drives. But I’m fading his passing yards total here, factoring in the Eagles’ front seven and the Bucs’ injury list, which includes Baker himself (though he’s expected to play).
Mayfield’s highlight reel is packed with gunslinging throws, so it’s somewhat surprising that he’s fallen short of this passing yards O/U number in five of his last seven outings, dating back to last season. That includes a 215-yard effort against a physical Houston Texans defense in Week 2.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia has faced Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford this year and held all three QBs under 200 passing yards (185.7 passing yards allowed per game overall).
As good as rookie Emeka Egbuka has looked, Tampa Bay could be in trouble here without Mike Evans, who’s sidelined by a hamstring injury, and with Chris Godwin just feeling his way back from ankle surgery.
Tristan Wirfs’ potential return would help an offensive line that was shaky against the New York Jets in Week 3, but I expect Mayfield to be dealing with a messy pocket for most of the afternoon, with Jalen Carter and Co. on the prowl.
Prop bet #3: A.J. Brown anytime touchdown
After two quiet weeks, A.J. Brown unleashed his inner excellence last weekend, revving up when Philadelphia fell behind 26-7 against the Rams. He finished with six grabs for 109 yards and a touchdown – and I see him finding the end zone again on Sunday.
This pick also speaks to the quality of the Tampa Bay run defense. If ever there was a game for Nick Sirianni to steer more towards targets for Brown and DeVonta Smith, especially in the red zone, this is it.
If the visitors aren’t getting consistent traction up front, Jalen Hurts has the weapons to take some shots down the field instead. The Hurts slant to Brown continues to look like an unstoppable play, and the former Tennessee Titan has had 18 targets since having one just pass thrown his way in the season opener against the Dallas Cowboys.
Brown is coming off 25 TDs across his last three seasons, and this is a great price for Philly’s No.1 receiver to add to his 2025 tally.
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