A rematch of the NFC Championship Game will play out at Levi’s Stadium on Monday night as the Los Angeles Rams take on the San Francisco 49ers.
Los Angeles has ruled the roost in the NFC West through three weeks at 2-1, though the 49ers trail by just a game at 1-2. If San Francisco forces a tie with L.A. in the divisional standings, it will likely be due to a big effort from wide receiver Deebo Samuel.
Here are our three favorite Deebo Samuel prop picks for Monday, October 3.
Deebo Samuel MNF prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Deebo Samuel MNF props
Samuel’s receiving production slowed with Trey Lance at quarterback for Week 1 and part of Week 2, as he recorded only 14 and 44 yards, respectively. But in spite of his team scoring just 10 points in a loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 3, there were signs of hope that Samuel will return to his 2021 levels in the passing game on Monday night.
Current Niners' QB Jimmy Garoppolo targeted Samuel eight times last week and found him on five occasions for 73 yards — including a 32-yard connection. Samuel cleared this relatively low bar of 55.5 receiving yards 12 times during the 2021 regular season. That includes both meetings with the Rams a year ago, when he amassed 192 total yards on just 11 targets and nine receptions.
Samuel is worth a look in the longest reception market at 21.5, as he had two 40+ yard gains against Jalen Ramsey and company a year ago. But taking the Over on this line is the more confident play.
Prop: Over 55.5 receiving yards (-115)
Samuel set a trend in the NFL last season with teams giving their top receivers handoffs on a more regular basis, and it wasn’t just a fad for him. Expect the South Carolina product to get his fair share of touches — especially with San Francisco down to Jeff Wilson Jr. as the starting running back — and to accumulate at least 30 rush yards.
Samuel rushed for 105 yards on 12 carries between Weeks 1 and 2 before Denver slowed him down to the tune of six yards on five carries last week. He’s gotten at least five handoffs in 13 of his last 14 games, including 27 carries in three playoff tilts last January. Samuel was limited to 26 yards rushing by the Rams in that aforementioned playoff affair, but accumulated 36 yards against them in Week 10, and 45 yards in Week 18 of the 2021 campaign.
He may not go bowling over this line, but the smart money says he’ll clear it.
Prop: Over 29.5 rushing yards (-114)
Hawk it down
Samuel’s prowess in the pass attack as well as the running game makes him a dual threat to cross the goal line in this one, but oddsmakers aren’t treating him as such. Back him to tally a touchdown in any way, shape, or form on Monday night.
The former All-Pro set an NFL record for a wide receiver when he registered eight rushing touchdowns in 2021. What was also remarkable about that figure was that he led his team in rushing scores, and had more touchdowns off handoffs than from passes (six).
Samuel recorded at least one touchdown in all three meetings with the Rams last season, including one on the ground and one through the air in Week 10.
Prop: Anytime touchdown (+120)