How fast the tide turns in the NFL.
Just last season, we were wondering if Dak Prescott’s best days were behind him after throwing 15 interceptions in just 12 games to tie for the worst total in the league.
Dak Prescott SNF prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Dak Prescott SNF prop pick
Under 0.5 interceptions (+105)
The 30-year-old is playing the best ball of the season, completing at a career-best 70.1% clip with just six interceptions all year. Throw out that dud against San Francisco, and he has just three picks total.
Prescott is in his current longest no-INT stretch of the season, going on three games and with just one in his last five.
Dak didn’t throw an interception in the last meeting in Philadelphia, despite losing 28-23.
Philadelphia’s defense is a good one, but that unit has all of six interceptions on the season. And the Eagles have been in a killer section of their season, where Miami, Dallas, KC, Buffalo, and San Francisco have worn them down. It certainly looked that way after the 49ers punished them 42-19 last week.
That doesn’t mean Philly won’t be amped for this division showdown, just that Prescott is at the peak of his powers, and I think he will stay in his groove with another clean performance.
Prop: Dak Prescott Under 0.5 interceptions (+105 at DraftKings)
Dak Prescott SNF same-game parlay
Dak Prescott Under 0.5 interceptions
Dak Prescott Over 2.5 TD passes
Dak Prescott Over 301.5 pass yards
CeeDee Lamb Over 90.5 receiving yards
It’s like Prescott hit the nitrous button after the Cowboys' Week 7 bye. Since then, Dallas has ripped off wins in five of six, with Prescott picking defenses apart. He has thrown for at least three touchdowns in all but one game during that stretch, a cruise-control effort where he threw for just 189 yards in a 33-10 drubbing over the Panthers. Following that game, he shredded the Washington Commanders 45-10, going 22-for-32 for 331 yards and four TDs.
Dak is coming off a great 41-35 win over the Seahawks Thursday night, throwing for 299 yards and three scores. Even in the loss to Philly, Prescott was a problem: 29-for-44 for 374 yards and three TDs. He has thrown for four or more TDs in three of his last six and has three or more touchdowns in each of his last four appearances against the Eagles.
The Eagles’ pass defense has looked vulnerable the last few weeks, with Brock Purdy lighting them up for four TD passes, while Josh Allen threw for two but could have had at least a couple more in Week 12, which brings us to Prescott’s passing yardage total.
Part of banging the Over of 301.5 yards is the fact the Eagles defense has done a good job all year stuffing the run, allowing just 90.3 yards per game (fourth in the league). Dallas is just outside the Top 10 in rushing yards per game at 117 per contest, but it’s the complementary piece in the Cowboys offense. That was also the case in Week 9, as the Cowboys could only churn out 73 yards on 21 totes.
Prescott has thrown for 300+ in four of his last six games while missing 300 by a yard in the last win against Seattle. His play has helped propel the Cowboys to third in the NFL at 263.4 yards per game. But that also takes into consideration Prescott's play pre-bye week, when his highest passing yardage output was 272 yards. Since the bye, he’s averaging 316.8 passing yards per game.
While we’re here, let’s also take a flier on red-hot CeeDee Lamb, who is coming off a 12-catch, 116-yard game with a TD catch. It was his fourth straight game with a score and fifth in the last six, for six total majors since the bye.
His only donut? Week 9 against these same Eagles. But getting into the end zone is about the only thing Lamb didn’t do, finishing with 11 catches for 191 yards. In fact, he’s cracked 100+ receiving yards in five of the last seven. Lamb has also recorded at least 106 receiving yards in five of the Cowboys' last six home games against NFC opponents. I don’t see him having problems cracking 90.5 Sunday night.
Not intended for use in MA.
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