Sunday Night Football features a classic NFC showdown in Week 6 as the Dallas Cowboys take on the Green Bay Packers.
Our Cowboys vs. Packers computer picks analyze the numbers, compare both teams, and project which side has the advantage heading into Sunday night. Will Dallas pull off a road victory, or will Green Bay protect home field?
Let’s break down these Cowboys vs. Packers predictions and NFL picks for this Week 6 showdown.
Cowboys vs Packers computer picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Cowboys |
 Packers |
|---|---|
| Prescott 275+ pass yds 52% |
Love 275+ pass yds 50% |
| Prescott 10+ rush yds 52% |
Lloyd 40+ rush yds 52% |
| Lamb 80+ rec yds - No 49% |
Watson 70+ rec yds 56% |
| Ferguson 25+ rec yds 51% |
Kraft 50+ rec yds 50% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Cowboys computer picks
Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards
Projection: 277.1 yards
This is a four-star play for our system.
"The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics."
Jason Logan's Cowboys vs. Packers predictions are also bullish on Prescott's passing yards prop.
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Dak Prescott 10+ rushing yards
Projection: 18.54 yards
Prescott has beaten this line in six of his last 10 overall, and he's projected to nearly double it this week.
"Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (127 per game) against the Packers defense this year."
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CeeDee Lamb 80+ receiving yards - No
Projection: 78.6 yards
CeeDee Lamb has gone Over this number in three of his last four, but our system is fading him this week.
"The Packers safeties grade out as the best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers."
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Jake Ferguson 25+ receiving yards
Projection: 29.3 yards
This Ferguson prop carries over a 21.2% EV edge.
"The model projects Jake Ferguson to total 5.0 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends."
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Packers computer picks
Jordan Love 275+ passing yards
Projection: 282.4 yards
Our system expects Jordan Love to have a busy evening in Green Bay.
"Our trusted projections expect Jordan Love to throw 38.8 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most out of all QBs."
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MarShawn Lloyd 40+ rushing yards
Projection: 53.6 yards
There's an over 25% EV edge associated with this play.
"The anemic Dallas Cowboys run defense has given up a massive 173.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the worst in football."
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Christian Watson 70+ receiving yards
Projection: 79 yards
Our computer believes Christian Watson will be quite busy this Sunday.
"Christian Watson's 83.6% Route% this season signifies a significant improvement in his pass attack utilization over last season's 71.0% rate.. In this week's game, Christian Watson is predicted by the projections to place in the 92nd percentile among wideouts with 8.6 targets."
Shawn Krest also makes the case for a big day for Watson in his Cowboys vs. Packers props.
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Tucker Kraft 50+ receiving yards
Projection: 50.8 yards
Tucker Kraft can help the Packers beat the Cowboys over the top, per our projections.
"As it relates to air yards, Tucker Kraft grades out in the towering 83rd percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a superb 30.0 per game."
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