Commanders vs Patriots Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 9: Patriots Offense Flounders Under Mac Jones

The Washington Commanders waved the white flag at the trade deadline shipping off key pieces of their defensive line which in turn moved the visiting Commanders’ NFL odds from +2 to as long as +3.5 vs. the New England Patriots this Sunday. 

However, with heavy injuries to their wide receivers, and an offense that has hit 21 or more points just once this year, is fading the favorite's team total the way to go Sunday now that it has crossed a key number?

I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Commanders vs. Patriots on November 5. 

Commanders vs Patriots odds

Commanders vs Patriots predictions

Only the New York Giants are scoring fewer points per game than the New England Patriots who sit at 14.8 points per contest. This is a Mac Jones offense that has topped a team total of 21.5 just once this year and enters Week 9 as thin as it has been at receiver.

Kendrick Bourne leads this team in receptions, yards, touchdowns, and snaps played at receiver but he won’t see the field Sunday as he has been put on IR with a torn ACL. DeVante Parker is dealing with a concussion and JuJu Smith-Schuster has just 89 yards through six games. Rounding out this WR group are rookie Demario Davis, Tyquan Thornton, and Jalen Reagor — not an intimidating group that is led by a QB with a passer rating below Desmond Ridder's.  

Add in the second-worst pass protection in the league, a rushing game that ranks in the bottom half in football in success rate, and slight market overreaction to the Washington Commanders trades, and the New England offense could be a good unit to bet against this week.

Washington traded Montez Sweat and Chase Young from the D-line and both DEs played solid snaps for the club, but the move from New England -1.5/-2 to -3.5 seems a bit rich and is pushing the New England team total from 20.5 to 21.5 which is a significant move. 

I like the Commanders at +3.5 here but the Patriots team total Under 21.5 is the best bet. Pinnacle is sitting at 20.5 which is a more accurate price. The perception is that Washington has quit, but this New England offense is void of pass catchers and has shown minimal signs of life over eight weeks — and that includes some easy competition. 

My best bet: Patriots team total Under 21.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Commanders vs Patriots same-game parlay

Patriots TT Under 21.5

Howell Over 243.5 passing yds

Howell Over 1.5 TDs

+577 at FanDuel

I like the matchup the Washington passing game has vs. ta Patriots' secondary that has been lost without starting corner Christian Gonzalez.

Since Week 5, this New England defense ranks 27th in success rate vs. the pass. Even Jimmy Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer combined to throw for over 260 yards vs. this unit two weeks ago. Washington has three quality receivers and it's hard to run against this defense. Sam Howell and his receivers could have a big game and garbage time creates another out.     

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Commanders vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis

The Commanders traded away Chase Young (positive grades in pass rush) and Montez Sweat (elite grades in run defense) at the deadline this week and saw their +2s moved to +3.5s as a result. This was an average defense at best and one that enters Week 9 much weaker on the defensive line.

Some books have been hesitant to hit the 3.5 and the +3.5s that are out there aren’t cheap as of Wednesday afternoon. I’m hesitant to lay more than a field goal with a New England offense that has scored more than 20 points just once this season. Mac Jones and the passing game should be able to beat a Washington defense that allows 7.5 yards per pass and nearly 260 passing yards per game — both bottom 5 marks. However, New England is without Kendrick Bourne (torn ACL) and DeVante Parker is questionable (concussion). 

The New England team total Under has been cashing weekly and even with the Commanders selling off assets, the New England team total Under 21.5 (-110 at Caesars) is looking appetizing. 

Washington is the heaviest passing team in football at 69% and faces a New England secondary that is still struggling, ranking in the bottom quarter of the league in success rate vs. the pass since corner Christian Gonzalez went down. The Pats have been great against the run (third in success rate over that stretch) but this secondary could struggle vs. a solid pass-catching group of receivers even with Bill Belichick’s track record vs. rookie QBs. 

I’d have to take the +3.5 here. Betting groups released the Patriots earlier in the week before any trades were made but the market has corrected. I can’t bet the Pats as a 3.5-point favorite as the Commanders have been a great dog team going 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog on the season. The two times New England has been a favorite this year were the 34-0 loss to the Saints as a 1.5-point favorite and a 15-10 win as a 2.5-point favorite vs. the Jets. 

This total was 39 on the look-ahead and has hit as high as 41. New England is a hard team to bet an Over with as the offense scores 14.8 points per game which is only better than the Giants. Both secondaries are weak but the talent of the New England offense is suspect. I have no love for this full-game total as I like the Patriots' team total Under 21.5 but lean on Washington's team total Over 18.5. 

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