The NFC East draws the prime-time lights, tipping off Week 10 with the Washington Commanders clashing with the New York Giants.
It might not be the sexiest sell, but Thursday Night Football has plenty of possible NFL picks in the player prop markets.
I measure the matchups in this mid-week divisional dance, giving you my best Commanders vs. Giants prop picks for Nov. 12.
Make sure to also check out our full Commanders vs. Giants predictions before kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium, with the game airing on Prime Video.
Best Commanders vs Giants props
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Austin Ekeler 10+ receiving yards |
46% |
 Cam Skattebo 14+ rushing attempts |
54% |
| Van Jefferson 10+ receiving yards |
46% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Austin Ekeler 10+ receiving yards
Veteran running back Austin Ekeler has stepped up for the Washington Commanders since starting RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt went down with an injury.
Ekeler took part in a season-high 45% of snaps in the Week 9 loss to Los Angeles, drawing three targets for two receptions and 18 receiving yards.
Despite not giving up many receiving yards to running backs overall, the New York Giants sit 29th in FTN’s coverage DVOA vs. RBs.
Ekeler caught the only pass his way for 15 yards in the tie game with the G-Men in Week 5. His Week 10 projections see a continued involvement in the Commies' offense, with his receiving output between 10.5 and a ceiling of 15 yards.
My number comes out to 13 receiving yards on TNF.
Prop pick #2: Cam Skattebo 14+ rushing attempts
The trade deadline came and went without the Giants adding a big-name running back like Jonathan Taylor. For second-year RB Cam Skattebo, that inactivity was a show of confidence.
Skattebo’s workload has varied recently, especially after fumble concerns saw him pretty much benched against New Orleans in Week 6. He responded with 17 carries for 124 yards in a Week 7 upset of Houston, during which he suffered a hamstring injury.
After a Week 8 bye and sitting out Week 9 (despite being close to playing), a healthy Skattebo gives the Giants a shot of energy on a short week. And with QB J.J. McCarthy still learning the playbook, expect New York to lean on the ground game.
Skattebo’s forecasts all sit north of 14 carries against Washington, with a high of 16.5. My projection sits at 15+ rushing attempts in Week 10, with the Giants in a run-positive game script as home favorites.
Prop pick #3: Van Jefferson 10+ receiving yards
Washington receiver Van Jefferson had a busy Week 9 against one of his former clubs.
After drawing just one target in his first two games of the season, Jefferson played 58% of snaps against the Rams, hauling in five of seven targets for 58 yards and a touchdown.
Jefferson’s spike in involvement came with the Commanders' WR room in shambles, losing Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown while also playing without Treylon Burks in Week 9. Even with Burks possibly returning Thursday, Jefferson will get reps after winning over QB Jayden Daniels.
Washington will see plenty of man-to-man from the Giants’ secondary, which rolls out man coverage at the seventh-highest rate. While we only have a small 2026 sample, Jefferson currently rates as the Commanders’ best WR versus man at PFF, averaging 12.3 yards per reception.
Player projections vary, considering the shakeups in the Washington receiving corps. Jefferson is forecasted to have between 10 and 23 receiving yards on Thursday, with my number settling at 14 receiving yards.
- Prop picks: 30-24, +3.64 units
More Commanders vs. Giants coverage
- Commanders vs Giants Prediction, Picks & Odds: Thursday Night Football Week 10
- Commanders vs Giants anytime touchdown scorer predictions: Thursday Night Football
- Commanders vs Giants best bets & expert picks: Thursday Night Football Week 10
- Commanders vs Giants computer picks: our best Week 10 player prop projections
- Commanders vs Giants score prediction: Thursday Night Football AI picks & projections
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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