Two teams that may be competing for a better draft position will conclude the NFL International Series in Madrid, Spain when the Washington Commanders take on the Miami Dolphins.
There are several matchup advantages for both offenses that we can exploit to find great value in a few player props.
Here are my top three NFL player prop picks for the Commanders vs. Dolphins on Sunday, November 16.
Commanders vs Dolphins props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jacory Croskey-Merritt |
Over 32.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Jaylen Waddle |
Longest reception Over 26.5 yards | -122 |
| Marcus Mariota |
Longest completion Over 33.5 yards | -114 |
Prop bet #1: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 32.5 rushing yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt or “Bill” as they like to call him has had a bit of an inconsistent rookie season. After averaging 6.6 yards per carry in his first five games, he has only averaged 3.0 yards per carry in his last five games.
However, he is still a big play threat, and the Miami Dolphins run defense is very susceptible to big plays. The Dolphins have allowed an explosive play on 16.1% of defensive plays this season, which is the fourth highest rate in the NFL.
The Dolphins rank 26th in the NFL allowing 139.7 yards per game on the ground. Only the Falcons failed to have a 50-yard rusher in a game all season against the Dolphins. Bill will not need a ton to hit this number, and I think he gets the volume to do so.
Prop bet #2: Jaylen Waddle longest reception Over 26.5 yards
Without Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins passing game has certainly been nerfed a little in the passing game. However, Jaylen Waddle has still been a huge deep threat and has quietly been one of the most dangerous in the NFL.
Waddle has caught a league-leading 17 of his 24 targets on vertical routes this season for 396 yards, which is second most in the NFL. His 3.3 yards per vertical route are the fourth most in the league and his 70.8% catch rate is the fourth highest.
The Washington Commanders have allowed 29 completions to vertical routes this season, which is tied for the fourth most in the NFL, for a league-high 865 yards. Waddle has hit this number for his longest catch in four of his last six games and gets a great matchup here in Madrid.
Prop bet #3: Marcus Mariota longest completion Over 33.5 yards
Marcus Mariota has found himself busy this season filling in for Jayden Daniels due to injury. This will be his fifth start already this season. After winning his first start, he has lost his last three. However, his production has not been too far off Daniels.
The Commanders have generated a 44.2% success rate in games started by Mariota, which is only slightly lower than their 46.1% success rate in games started by Daniels. They have averaged 6.9 yards per dropback in games started by Mariota, which is eighth most among teams with games in those weeks.
Marcus Mariota has thrown 42.7% of his pass attempts downfield, which is more than any other qualified quarterback this season. The Dolphins have allowed the third highest passer rating at 123.2 against downfield passes this season. Even though he will be without Terry McLaurin, I like his chances of hitting a big pass against this defense.
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