The NFC East rarely needs extra spice, but Commanders vs. Cowboys prop picks add another layer to a matchup already packed with volatility.
Javonte Williams draws a softer rushing matchup, Ryan Flournoy could see his opportunities squeezed, and Jayden Daniels has a chance to finally uncork the deep ball against a Dallas defense that still looks vulnerable through the air.
Check out more NFL picks for Week 2.
Best Commanders vs Cowboys props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Javonte Williams Over 74.5 rushing yards |
53% |
| Ryan Flournoy Under 2.5 receptions |
50% |
 Jayden Daniels Over 224.5 passing yards |
53% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Commanders vs Cowboys prop pick #1: Javonte Williams Over 74.5 rushing yards
I'm cool with playing Dallas RB Javonte Williams' rushing prop to Over 76.5.
Washington's defense was terrible last season, and it didn't upgrade its roster much this offseason. The Commanders gave up the third-most rushing yards to opposing running backs last season, and they ranked fourth in yards before contact per carry.
Williams cleared this number in nine of his 16 games last season, including a 116-yard game vs. Washington. He only had 41 yards on 12 carries against the New York Giants last week.
But New York's defensive front is much better than Washington's, and Williams couldn't get his average volume because there were only four full possessions in the second half of that Cowboys-Giants game.
Commanders vs Cowboys prop pick #2: Ryan Flournoy Under 2.5 receptions
Give me the Under for Dallas WR Ryan Flournoy's 2.5 receptions prop, up to 57%.
Flournoy was shut out in his first game vs. the Commanders last season and caught two passes in the other. However, Flournoy was on the field for 56.3% and 57.1% of the snaps in those games.
Also, I'm picking the Williams Over for his rushing yards prop because I think his usage will increase, so that'll likely eat into another Cowboy's usage.
Flournoy is my pick to lose opportunities since he ranked fourth on Dallas in targets last season and had only five more than Williams.
Commanders vs Cowboys prop pick #3: Jayden Daniels Over 224.5 passing yards
Washington QB Jayden Daniels' Over passing yards prop is playable up to 226.5.
Daniels left early with an injury in two of his three games against Dallas. He threw for 275 yards in his one full game against the Cowboys. Granted, it was back in 2024, and Daniels has been plagued by injuries in his first two NFL seasons.
Nonetheless, he is healthy right now, and I like Washington's WR corps, featuring Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs. Like Daniels, I'm not sure Diggs can stay healthy at his age for a full season, but they are healthy right now.
Finally, Dallas's defense still sucks, and we haven't seen one of Daniels' trademark bombs, but I'm expecting to see a few this week.
- Prop picks: 4-2, +1.65 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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