Colts vs Chiefs Predictions - Early Picks & Odds for Week 12

After back-to-back losses, the Kansas City Chiefs are tumbling down the AFC standings, owning an estimated 55% chance of making the playoffs.

Kansas City is in “must-win mode” when it hosts the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12.

I size up the opening odds and early line moves. I also give my leans, early Colts vs. Chiefs predictions, and NFL picks for Sunday, November 23.

Colts vs Chiefs predictions

Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.

Early Colts vs Chiefs spread pick: Indianapolis +3.5

-115 at FanDuel

Bookies are giving the Kansas City Chiefs the benefit of the doubt in Week 12. This spread opened with a half-point hook on the field goal, but the market seems to be moving away from the Chiefs’ chances, and we could see this spread slim to -3 sooner than later.

The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a bye, giving them two weeks to watch and prep for Kansas City. The Colts' biggest weapon against KC is the rushing attack behind MVP hopeful Jonathan Taylor.

Taylor is coming off a monster performance in Germany and faces a Chiefs defense that has been susceptible to ground gains. Kansas City did a good job bottling up the Broncos’ rushing game in Sunday’s loss at Denver, yet still sits 24th in EPA allowed per carry and ranks middle of the road in many other measurements.

Indianapolis’ run game is the backbone of Shane Steichen’s play-action offense, and that misdirection should keep KC’s defense guessing. The Broncos’ RPO attack had similar success, leading to 342 yards on offense and a 7-for-15 finish on third downs – including key conversions on the game-winning drive.

Considering the uptick in vig on the Colts +3.5 line, we could see this spread slide to +3 later in the week. There could be some public buyback, given the dire situation for the Chiefs and the fact that KC hasn’t lost three straight since Patrick Mahomes took over under center.

Early Colts vs Chiefs total pick: Over 49.5

-115 at FanDuel

I’ll lean Over with this total coming off its opener of 50.5 and dropping to 49.5 in the early hours of action on Sunday night. The Over carries an extra cost at -115, so we could see this tick upward, just shy of the key number of 51.

The Colts are the top offensive attack in the NFL, rated No. 1 in EPA per play, No. 2 in success rate, and No. 1 in Offensive DVOA at FTN.

Taylor will be used early and often, and the Indianapolis offensive line won’t let the KC pass rush get to QB Daniel Jones, boasting one of the best pass block win rates and pass block ratings at PFF.

The Chiefs offense will leave it all on the field. Kansas City had a tough time cracking the Broncos’ stop unit in Week 11, but Indianapolis doesn’t bring the same pass pressure, nor does it have the same talent in the secondary.

The extended forecast for Arrowhead Stadium looks clean and clear, with warmer temperatures and little wind. There’s a surplus of firepower on the field, and I’m leaning Over 49.5, as this total won’t likely drift beyond the key numbers of 48 and 51 points. 

Colts vs Chiefs odds

• Colts vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs -3.5
• Colts vs. Chiefs moneyline: Colts +158, Chiefs -188
• Colts vs. Chiefs Over/Under: 49.5

How to watch Colts vs Chiefs

• Colts vs. Chiefs matchup
• Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
• City: Kansas City, MO
  
• Venue: Geha Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• TV: CBS 

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