The Kansas City Chiefs will try to extend a two-game winning streak as they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football in Week 5 of the NFL season.
After some early struggles, Kansas City seems to be rounding back into the form we expect from it each season, and I’m taking it to cover in my early Chiefs vs. Jaguars predictions below.
Let’s take an early look at my NFL picks for Monday, October 6.
Chiefs vs Jaguars predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early MNF spread pick: Chiefs -3
As some of the Kansas City Chiefs key players age, fans and pundits have looked for any signs of a drop-off in Kansas City. And while we once again thought there might be trouble after a 0-2 start, the Chiefs have looked like the same old Super Bowl contenders in consecutive wins over the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens.
While the Giants' win was a nice way to get on the board this season, the 37-20 victory over Baltimore was a statement. Kansas City dominated the game from the second quarter on, with Patrick Mahomes throwing for four touchdowns and 270 yards in the decisive win.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have started 3-1, but haven’t looked like an elite team by any measure. Trevor Lawrence is only completing 58.3% of his passes and has thrown four picks, with Travis Etienne Jr. carrying the offensive load with 394 yards rushing and three touchdowns.
Jacksonville has been good at keeping relatively tame opposing offenses in check, but the Chiefs are clicking and should be able to score enough to win this one. I like Kansas City to cover the field goal spread.
Early MNF total pick: Under 45.5
While I think Kansas City will get enough points to win on Monday night, it’s worth remembering that the Jaguars have played good defense for most of this year. Opposing quarterbacks have a 67.7 rating against Jacksonville — the lowest number in the NFL — and Jacksonville is only giving up 18.0 ppg on the year.
That has me wondering about the relatively high total bookmakers have set for this game. Sure, the Chiefs looked great against Baltimore, but they haven’t scored more than 22 points in any other game. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has yet to score more than 27 points in a game, while holding three of its four opponents to 21 points or less.
I think the only way to justify the Over in this game is to assume that what the Chiefs did to the Ravens is the new normal for the Kansas City offense with Xavier Worthy back in the lineup. I find it hard to believe that this team also only hit 28+ points four times in the 2024 regular season.
Even if the Chiefs do sustain most of last week’s offensive success, I don’t see the Jaguars scoring enough to turn this into a shootout. I’m happy taking the Under here.
Chiefs vs Jaguars odds
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars spread: Jaguars +3
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars moneyline: Chiefs -160, Jaguars +120
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars Over/Under: 45.5
How to watch Chiefs vs Jaguars
- Chiefs vs. Jaguars matchup
- Date: Monday, October 5, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Jacksonville
- Venue: EverBank Stadium
- TV: ESPN/ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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