The Buffalo Bills and their fans have had this Week 9 date with the Kansas City Chiefs circled since the schedule dropped in the spring.
Buffalo was once again denied a spot in the Super Bowl by Kansas City in last year’s AFC Championship Game and enters Week 9 as a rare home underdog, marking just the sixth time the Bills have gotten points in Orchard Park since 2020.
Here are my early Chiefs vs. Bills predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, November 2.
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Chiefs vs Bills predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Chiefs vs Bills spread pick: Buffalo +1.5
The Buffalo Bills haven’t solved the Kansas City Chiefs in the postseason, but they have had success against them in the regular season, going 4-1 straight up and against the spread in those matchups since 2020.
Buffalo has a rest edge after Kansas City played on Monday Night Football in Week 8, and the Bills would have used their Week 7 bye to get a head start on prep and scheming for the Chiefs, given they played lowly Carolina last weekend.
The Chiefs defense has been stellar during the team’s recent surge, but it has a soft spot against the run. Kansas City can hide those flaws by jumping out to big leads and forcing foes to abandon the ground game.
Buffalo will look to set the tone on the turf right out of the gate, giving RB James Cook the ball behind an offensive line among the elite run-block units in the league. The Bills are No. 2 in rushing offense DVOA and EPA per handoff, boasting the fourth-highest success rate per run.
Buffalo is a ball hog and tops the NFL in time of possession (33:14), which allows the Bills to protect a questionable defense by keeping Patrick Mahomes and the KC attack on the sideline.
The Bills are getting points in Orchard Park for just the sixth time since 2020 and are 4-1 SU and ATS in those rare spots as home pups.
Early Chiefs vs Bills total pick: Under 52.5
This total opened at 51.5 points and has climbed to 52.5 with early action on the Over. I can fully understand that move, based on the firepower on the field. While this one could see plenty of points, I don’t know if it will clear that inflated spread.
As mentioned, the Bills want to establish the run and play “keep away” from Kansas City, not allowing the Chiefs to build an early lead. That produces shorter gains and keeps the clock ticking.
Buffalo’s defense does a good job protecting against big plays, allowing only 16 completions for 20 or more yards, but it has its own troubles stopping the run. The Bills are among the worst run-stopping units and won’t have DL Ed Oliver.
The Chiefs aren’t a powerful rushing team by any means, but they take what their opponents give them. Kansas City rumbled for 148 rushing yards on Monday, picking up 4.9 yards per attempt vs. Washington.
The Chiefs’ passing game is also on the conservative end, relying on short throws underneath and yards after the catch from receivers. Kansas City is the No. 1 team in YAC and faces a Buffalo defense giving up the third-fewest YAC on the season.
Chiefs vs Bills odds
- Chiefs vs. Bills spread: Bills +1.5
- Chiefs vs. Bills moneyline: Chiefs -126, Bills +108
- Chiefs vs. Bills Over/Under: 52.5
How to watch Chiefs vs Bills
- Chiefs vs. Bills matchup
- Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Orchard Park, NY
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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