Chargers vs Rams Preseason Picks and Predictions: Rams Flex Their Muscles vs Chargers Reserves

Preseason football gets underway in Southern California as the Los Angeles Chargers and Los Angels Rams battle for supremacy in the City of Angels. Both squads had disappointing seasons a year ago, but to a much different effect. 

The Chargers went 10-7 in a strong regular season before utterly collapsing in a humiliating playoff loss in the Wild Card Round. The Rams bottomed out at 5-12, a steep decline and direct inverse of the year prior when they went 12-5 in the regular season and went on the become Super Bowl champs. 

Looking at the NFL odds, the Rams are actually a slight favorite at home for this preseason opener. How can that possibly be the case? I explain that and more in my full NFL picks and predictions for Chargers vs. Rams on Saturday, August 12.

Chargers vs Rams odds

Chargers vs Rams predictions

For a team that regularly receives an oversized share of offseason hype, the conversation surrounding the Los Angeles Chargers has been relatively muted this offseason. Still, there are high hopes surrounding Justin Herbert and his squad heading into 2023 as a team with plenty of assets. 

Don’t expect to see the Chargers’ impact players much, if at all, on Saturday. Brandon Staley has a reputation for resting his starters during preseason games (just not Week 18 games!), so if history holds to form that’ll be the case again this year. Don’t expect to see stars like Herbert and Derwin James. 

The Chargers went 1-2 in the preseason a year ago, dropping their first two contests before coming away victorious in the third and final dress rehearsal. Staley has just a 1-5 record in preseason games across two seasons.

They did release a depth chart and Easton Stick is listed as the QB2, followed by rookie Max Duggan. They have similar playing styles in that both are mobile, rugged players who aren’t afraid to try to win via their legs. Not pictured on the depth chart but expected to receive playing time is longtime backup quarterback Chase Daniel. 

They’ll be running a new scheme this season with Kellen Moore brought in to call the shots. We likely won’t see the entire playbook, but it will be a change from prior offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. Defensively, the Chargers are moving to a 3-4 scheme under new defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley. 

Personally, I don’t believe they’ll be operating at maximum efficiency in the first preseason game with new schemes on both sides of the ball. 

As for the Rams, they’ll have a quarterback battle for the No. 2 spot in the rotation behind Matthew Stafford. Stetson Bennett and Brett Rypien are the two names to know, so I’d expect to see a fair amount of playing time for both signal callers on Saturday as the staff monitors their progress. 

Rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua, a BYU product, has been getting hyped up all training camp as an explosive weapon. It’d be a surprise if he isn’t given a chance to show off what he has in live-game action. 

Head coach Sean McVay didn’t play his starters in the preseason a year ago, but he’s already gone on record saying that will change this season as he takes a “very different approach”. He and GM Les Snead have not provided specific names of players that will be on the field, but they’ve given enough inclination that we can expect to see a fair amount of regular-season contributors on the field to start the game. 

We’ve already seen the Rams blow up from +1 at open to -3 at current, likely in reaction to the news that McVay is approaching this preseason differently. I do find those quotes to be actionable information, as McVay is just 1-5 in the preseason across the last two years and is actively looking to make a change, whereas Staley has shown no interest whatsoever in these mock games. 

I expect to see the Rams more motivated to find a win in this spot after a disappointing 2022 season. Reading the tea leaves, I’m looking for the Rams to come out on top and cover the spread. 

My best bet: Rams -3 (-110 at FanDuel)

Chargers vs Rams spread and Over/Under analysis

The Rams are currently a -3 favorite at most locations, although -3.5 has also started to pop up. The total opened at 32.5 but has been bet up to 33.5 across most locations, with 33 and 34.5 both available as well. 

Neither coach has shown much commitment to winning preseason games, combining for an 8-16 record over the years. That includes a 1-5 record for Staley and a 7-11 mark for McVay. 

The Chargers played to a 10-7 record a year ago but collapsed in the Wild Card Round. After grabbing a 27-7 lead, they allowed the Jacksonville Jaguars to mount a furious 24-3 run that culminated with a last-second game-winning field goal. 

Their main deficiencies involved not being able to run the ball effectively on offense, mustering a paltry 3.8 yards per carry, while also not stopping opposing teams from running all over them (5.4 yards per carry). They’ll need to shore up that discrepancy to be a serious contender and have new schemes on both sides of the ball in hopes of doing just that. 

While the new schemes may prove to be a wise move over the long haul, I believe it puts them at a disadvantage in the first preseason game with young depth players with minimal live tackling experience playing in new schemes. 

As for the total, it was a very low number at the opener of 32.5, and therefore I’d be inclined to take a look at the Over. It’s since moved up to 33.5 and is slightly less appealing there, as this first preseason game could be a bit of a slog as both teams look to grind the game down to a halt while running the ball aplenty. 

The Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams. 

Chargers vs Rams betting trend to know

The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these squads. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Rams.

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