The Los Angeles Chargers will be looking to snap a two-game losing streak when they visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon.
Miami’s resume isn’t quite as putrid as it may seem, and I’m taking it to cover in my early Chargers vs. Dolphins picks and predictions below.
Continue reading to discover how I believe bettors should approach the early lines in my free NFL picks for Sunday, October 12.
Chargers vs Dolphins predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Chargers vs Dolphins spread pick: Dolphins +4.5
The Miami Dolphins are 1-4, and their only win came over the hapless New York Jets. They’re also coming off a road loss to the Carolina Panthers, but Miami’s overall results suggest it’ll be competing in Week 6.
For one, a couple of those losses don’t look all that bad. A 10-point defeat on the road to the Bills saw the Dolphins cover, and we didn’t know how competitive the Patriots would be when they beat Miami 33-27 back in Week 2.
Since a blowout loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1, Miami has been in every game it’s played.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers are scuffling. The Chargers are scoring 19.6 ppg even though they’ve been able to move the ball relatively well each week.
Justin Herbert has thrown four interceptions and just three touchdown passes over the past three weeks, and running back Omarion Hampton is questionable for Sunday’s game.
It’s always good to take a serious look at home dogs, and the Dolphins are poised to compete well against the Bolts this week.
Early Chargers vs Dolphins total pick: Over 43.5
These teams have played in opposite directions in terms of the total. The Chargers have hit the Under in each of their last four games, while Miami has played to the Over in four straight.
One of these trends will have to break this week. The Chargers' offense certainly has the potential to score more, as Herbert and company showed earlier in the year against the Kansas City Chiefs: The Miami defense will give them opportunities:
The Dolphins are giving up 6.6 yards per play and 29 ppg, two of the worst marks in the NFL.
Miami’s offensive totals are held down by a terrible display in Week 1. Since then, the Fins have scored at least 21 points in each game, with Tua Tagovailoa and De'Von Achane causing enough trouble to make me think they can overcome the loss of Tyreek Hill.
Will this be a shootout? I doubt it, but both offenses will have more than a few moments to shine in this one. The low total has me taking the Over, although I’d likely stay away from this bet if the number were to move to 45.
Chargers vs Dolphins odds
- Chargers vs. Dolphins spread: Dolphins +4.5
- Chargers vs. Dolphins moneyline: Chargers -240, Dolphins +198
- Chargers vs. Dolphins Over/Under: 43.5
How to watch Chargers vs Dolphins
- Chargers vs. Dolphins matchup
- Date: Sunday, October 6, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Miami, FL
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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