The Denver Broncos need a win to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and the Los Angeles Chargers are resting multiple key starters on both sides of the ball when these two meet at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, January 4.
My Chargers vs. Broncos predictions opt to bet on Trey Lance in this AFC West showcase.
Read on for my full NFL picks.
Chargers vs Broncos prediction
Chargers vs Broncos Best bet: Trey Lance Over 15.5 passing completions (-108)
The Denver Broncos have sent out a high-end defense all season, but they weren’t as sharp down the stretch against the pass with a middling rank of 19th in EPA per dropback from Week 7 through Week 16.
Additionally, the Broncos have allowed 15 or more completions in 12 of 16 games this season.
I’m anticipating the Los Angeles Chargers to set backup quarterback Trey Lance up for success with short and intermediate throws early and often Sunday afternoon, and with the Bolts a huge underdog, Lance to continue airing it out throughout the game.
Plus, opponents have averaged the sixth-most pass attempts per game (36.6) against the Broncos.
This will be Lance’s sixth career start. So, while his 56.4% completion rate across his five-year career is nothing to write home about, the 25-year-old QB does have experience and has been around the game long enough to cash this Over.
All we’re asking for is four completions per quarter, after all.
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Chargers vs Broncos same-game parlay
Even with Los Angeles likely resting several key starters, this is a monster spread for a divisional game, and the window is wide open for a backdoor cover if Denver jumps out to a healthy lead.
The Broncos have failed to cover the spread as a touchdown or greater favorite in five consecutive games, too.
I do expect Denver to start on time and put points on the board early.
Still, I also expect the Los Angeles players to be plenty motivated with an opportunity to show they can hang at the highest level.
The Chargers have also played to the Over in 13 of their past 24 games, and this is the lowest total of the season for Los Angeles and tied for the lowest for Denver.
Lance is also positioned to pile up enough passing yards to hit this Over. The Broncos have surrendered 200 or more passing yards in 11 of 16 games, and he’ll also have ample chemistry with fellow Los Angeles backups who are called upon this week.
Chargers vs Broncos SGP
- Chargers +12.5
- Over 37.5
- Trey Lance Over 167.5 passing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Ride with big Harv
The Broncos have leaned on R.J. Harvey down the stretch, and he’s found the end zone each of the past four weeks while averaging 58.3 rushing yards per game.
Chargers vs Broncos SGP
- Chargers +12.5
- Trey Lance Over 167.5 passing yards
- R.J. Harvey Over 56.5 rushing yards
- R.J. Harvey anytime touchdown
Chargers vs Broncos game predictions
Chargers vs Broncos moneyline prediction
This would go down as one of the biggest upsets of the season if the Chargers pulled it off, and I just don’t see Denver letting this game slip away with Los Angeles' starters resting. The Broncos' moneyline odds of -900 have an implied probability of 90%, and Denver has won nine of its past 10 home games.
Prediction: Broncos moneyline
Chargers vs Broncos spread prediction
As noted, Denver has lost five straight when favored by a touchdown or more, and I think there’s a wide-open opportunity for a backdoor cover. With that in mind, I think there’s a case for both teams to be considered in six-point teasers this week.
Chargers vs Broncos Over/Under prediction
I’m anticipating Denver putting points on the board, while Los Angeles has just enough success on offense to help push this total Over the number. The Chargers have hit the Over in 13 of their past 22 games (+3.10 Units / 13% ROI), too.
Prediction: Over 37.5
Chargers vs Broncos odds
- Spread: Chargers +12.5 (-105) | Broncos -12.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Chargers +610 | Broncos -900
- Over/Under: Over 37.5 (-112) | Under 37.5 (-108)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Chargers vs Broncos trend to know
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.10 Units / 13% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Broncos.
How to watch Chargers vs Broncos
| Location | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date | Sunday, January 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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