Buccaneers vs Jets Preseason Picks and Predictions: NY Defense Fuels Low-Scoring Tilt

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could gain clarity on their quarterback situation as they visit the New York Jets as NFL odds underdogs for a preseason showdown on Saturday night.

Tampa Bay (0-1) is still looking to determine whether they’ll be giving the starting quarterback job to veteran Baker Mayfield or former Florida Gators quarterback Kyle Trask. They’ll both have work to do against a Jets (1-1) defense that held the Carolina Panthers scoreless last week.

The Jets are once again expecting to play without Aaron Rodgers, instead giving Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle the ball against Tampa Bay. We’ll discuss how these decisions might impact Saturday’s game in our free NFL picks and predictions for Buccaneers vs. Jets on August 19.

Buccaneers vs Jets odds

Buccaneers vs Jets predictions

One of the most revealing aspects of last weekend’s preseason games was the defensive display put on by the Jets. Heading into their game against Carolina, it was expected that even the second-unit secondary for the Jets would give Bryce Young and company trouble. 

However, the truly impressive unit was the defensive line, which hounded Carolina’s signal callers all day long. The Jets managed to record five sacks and eight quarterback hits, even without their four starting lineman playing a single snap during the contest.

That sparked an impressive 27-0 win over the Panthers. Now, New York should get a bit of a tougher test against Mayfield, who has five years of NFL experience under his belt. Baker Mayfield has never lived up to the promise he showed in his first few years with the Cleveland Browns, however, which has forced him into a quarterback battle with Kyle Trask, who played in just one game for the Bucs in his rookie campaign last season.

Trask spent two years as a starter with Florida, throwing 68 touchdowns against 15 interceptions over 24 games during that span. Tampa Bay went on to draft him in the second round, a high enough pick that suggests they want to get some value from him in the future. Depending on what happens over the next couple of weeks, the future could be now. 

The Jets should once again be able to play effective defense against an opposing preseason offense. New York showed incredible depth in the game against Carolina, with their rotational players, second unit, and even third-string defenders dominating the equivalent talent on the other side of the ball. The Jets will also be giving their starters at least a few reps on defense in Saturday’s game, which makes the situation even tougher for the Tampa Bay offense as it searches for a leader.

The Jets aren’t without problems on the offensive end themselves, either. New York is still trying to figure out what it is doing with its offensive line, which has emerged as a weak spot. The line struggled against the Buccaneers pass rush unit in the joint practice held between the teams this week, which could cause trouble for Zach Wilson as he tries to prove he can be a reliable backup to Rodgers.

These matchups make me feel as though the defenses should have the best of the action in this one. While the total has been set relatively low, a number of 37 isn’t an outlandish Over/Under for any preseason game, let alone one in which both offenses might be struggling for points for much of the game. 

With both teams struggling for offensive consistency, and given the defensive talent on display — especially for the Jets — I’m playing the Under on this game, and would stick with it even if the total goes back down a half-point. 

My best bet: Under 37 (-110 at Caesars)

Buccaneers vs Jets spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for Saturday’s game opened with Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite. Bettors have since pushed the line to the other side of the key number, with Buccaneers -3.5 the most common spread at books as of Friday night.

Tampa Bay failed to cover as an underdog in its opening game. The Jets are 1-1 against the spread so far this preseason.

A quick look at how these teams are approaching this game reveals a lot about why the Buccaneers are the favorites. Tampa Bay may be using this game to determine who its starting quarterback will be. That not only means that the Bucs will be splitting time between their top two options behind center, but that both will likely get reps with the first-team offense to get more film on both Mayfield and Trask with their receivers. Meanwhile, the Jets will be mixing Wilson with Tim Boyle, a journeyman just trying to make the New York roster.

Despite this, I’m leaning towards the Jets in this one. I think the quality and depth of the New York defense will make sure they’re in every preseason game, and with 3.5 points available, that’s just enough to make it appetizing to take the Jets on the spread. I prefer betting the total in this game, but I’m also backing New York.

The total for Saturday’s matchup opened at 36.5 points. That number has come up slightly, and now many books are offering 37 as their main Over/Under, with approximately even odds on both sides of that line.

Tampa Bay hit the Over in their first preseason game, a 27-17 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Jets have played twice already, hitting each side of the total once so far.

As I highlighted above, I think the quality of the defensive units should outshine the offensive play in this game. The Jets should continue to give preseason opponents fits, especially for a team with an uncertain quarterback situation and the potential for New York to run out its starters from time to time during the game. Even the second unit is dominant against this level of competition.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has shown in practice that it can bother a shaky Jets offensive line. Wilson isn’t exactly the cream of the crop when it comes to NFL quarterbacks, either, and the Jets offense should stall even more when Boyle takes over. There shouldn’t be too many points in this one — I’m strongly backing the Under.

Buccaneers vs Jets betting trend to know

The Jets have allowed 21 points or less in four of their past five preseason games. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Jets.

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