The New England Patriots can put some distance between them and the Buffalo Bills when these AFC East rivals clash in Week 15.
New England owns a two-win lead over Buffalo in the division, yet oddsmakers aren’t convinced it can hold on to that cushion.
I size up the opening odds, moves, and give my leans, early Bills vs. Patriots predictions, and NFL picks for Sunday, December 14.
Bills vs Patriots predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Bills vs Patriots spread pick: Patriots +1.5
The New England Patriots opened as underdogs for the franchise's biggest game since Tom Brady bailed. New England hit the board as +1.5, and we’ve seen this spread slim at some sportsbooks.
In a matchup of QBs, I’ll give Josh Allen the nod. But that’s about the Buffalo Bills' only edge.
Drake Maye is performing at a high level and could get complementary yardage from the run game, considering how bad the Bills’ run stop is this season.
New England is coming off a bye, giving Mike Vrabel two weeks to prep and scheme for Allen & Co. And, of course, the Pats already knocked off their AFC East foes once this year, edging Buffalo 23-20 in Orchard Park in Week 5.
I agree with the movement toward the home side, and my first bet of the week was grabbing those points with the Patriots +1.5.
Early Bills vs Patriots total pick: Under 49.5
This game will have a playoff-like atmosphere in Gillette Stadium, and Patriots fans haven’t had this much to cheer for in a while.
New England has a much stronger defense, ranked Top 10 in many advanced measurements, and has been especially stout against the run, which is what Buffalo wants to do with the football. New England bottled up that Buffalo ground game for just over four yards per carry in Week 5.
Offensively, the Patriots have puffed up their recent numbers against some bottom-tier defenses. And while the Bills aren’t locking anyone down, they at least put up more fight than the likes of the Giants, Bengals, and Jets.
This total opened at 48.5, on the other side of the key number of 48, and is up to 49.5 O/U. If more Over money shows, bookies will move quickly toward 50 and 51 points. If you like the Under, maybe wait to see if it goes higher.
Bills vs Patriots odds
- Bills vs. Patriots spread: Patriots +1.5
- Bills vs. Patriots moneyline: Bills -118, Patriots +100
- Bills vs. Patriots Over/Under: 49.5
How to watch Bills vs Patriots
- Bills vs. Patriots matchup
- Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Foxborough, MA
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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