After a chaotic Week 1 for both the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, these AFC East rivals look to settle into normalcy in Week 2.
The Jets exploded for 32 points in a surprising shootout loss to Pittsburgh, while the Bills rallied with 41 points in a dramatic comeback over Baltimore.
I expect both offenses to cool off in this divisional clash, which has me zeroing in on the total for Sunday’s matchup at MetLife Stadium. Here are my Bills vs. Jets predictions and NFL picks on September 14.
Bills vs Jets prediction
Bills vs Jets best bet: Under 46.5 (-115)
Nothing is shocking about the Buffalo Bills putting up a pile of points, but no one saw the New York Jets lighting up the scoreboard against the Steelers in Week 1. That game closed with a total of 38 points — the shortest number on the board — and finished with a collective 66 points.
New York was supposed to be a team that leaned on its defense, with new head coach Aaron Glenn injecting the stop unit with new life after success as the defensive coordinator in Detroit. I still believe this is true — more so as they settle into Glenn’s schemes.
The Jets’ D held up well through three quarters before oozing 17 points in the final 15 minutes. On the day, they checked Pittsburgh to 5.0 yards per play and limited Pittsburgh to 4-for-10 on third down conversions but gave up some explosive plays.
As for the other side of the ball, regression is ripe for Gang Green in Week 2. This offense is a run-heavy scheme under new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, which typically lends itself to lower-scoring results (shorter gains that keep the clock ticking).
The Jets ran 39 times in Week 1 — second most — and boasted the highest handoff rate in the league (63%). However, a handful of big passing plays from new quarterback Justin Fields (five completions of 20+ yards) really supercharged New York’s attack.
A run-centric scheme looks like it could work against Buffalo, especially after the Bills were steamrolled for 238 rushing yards from the Ravens.
This Bills defense didn’t have answers for Baltimore’s ground game, but it did stiffen up against the run in the second half, which opened the door for that comeback. Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich was furious with his squad’s efforts on Sunday night and blasted the defense ahead of this trip to East Rutherford.
Buffalo will have a better showing on defense in Week 2, having laid a lot of groundwork for dealing with a dual-threat QB like Fields after game planning for Lamar Jackson in the season opener. Fields is dangerous, but is nowhere near the impossible task of containing Jackson and Baltimore’s efficient attack.
The spread for this AFC East encounter has Buffalo laying close to a touchdown, which means game script predicts the Bills playing with a solid lead in the second half. Protecting that edge will have Buffalo playing a slower pace and chewing clock down the stretch, while also keeping in mind the quick turnaround in Week 3 and a Thursday matchup with Miami.
Bills vs Jets same-game parlay
The look-ahead total before Week 1’s results was 44.5 O/U. This current number feels like a knee-jerk reaction to the Jets’ outcome and Buffalo’s wild Week 1 outcome.
The Bills brought blitz at a 41% clip against Baltimore, and that pressure will put Fields on the run.
Allen scored two touchdowns in Week 1 and is always a live anytime TD option. Buffalo could be without running back James Cook (hamstring), so Allen could see his number called more on Sunday.
Bills vs Jets 3-leg SGP
- Under 46.5
- Justin Fields 43.5 rushing yards
- Josh Allen anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Go Buffalo or go home
- The Bills are on a much higher level right now
Bills vs Jets 4-leg SGP
- Bills -6.5
- Under 46.5
- Justin Field Over 43.5 rushing yards
- Josh Allen anytime touchdown
Bills vs Jets game predictions
Bills vs Jets moneyline prediction
Buffalo runs the risk of a letdown spot after that crazy comeback in Week 1, but should be able to leave New Jersey with a win over an improved Jets team. Prediction: Buffalo wins 27-17.
Bills vs Jets spread prediction
The look-ahead line heading into the season was Bills -8.5, but with injuries in the secondary and James Cook listed as questionable, this Week 2 spread officially opened at Bills -7 and has come down to -6.5. I’m not rushing to bet Buffalo, especially with a TNF appearance looming, but I could see them covering.
Bills vs Jets Over/Under prediction
New York’s offense reeks of regression. The Jets want to take the air out of the football with their ground game, limiting touches and keeping Allen & Co. parked on the sideline. I also expect progress from the New York defense in Week 2 under Glenn’s new schemes.
Bills vs Jets odds
- Spread: Bills -6.5 | Jets +6.5
- Moneyline: Bills -310 | Jets +250
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Bills vs Jets trend to know
Aaron Glenn is trying to change the losing culture in East Rutherford. A good start is staying competitive in the AFC East. Under former coach Robert Salah (and including the remainder of 2024 after he was fired), New York was a dismal 6-18 SU and 9-15 ATS in divisional games.
Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Jets.
How to watch Bills vs Jets
| Location | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date | Sunday, September 14, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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