NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 16: Kliff Calls Conners' Number

Happy holidays, you absolute beauties. We have three prime-time Sunday games and I’m adding to the prop card with more plays that I’m putting my own money on.

With the markets for the Denver game opening up late, there are still some inefficiencies to find while the game script in Arizona might be slightly misleading.

I break it all down in my best NFL player prop picks for Week 16.  Let's cash on Christmas!

Latest NFL prop picks

• Higbee Under 30.5 receiving yards (-120)
• Conner Over 67.5 rushing yards (-114)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Sunday

Blocking bee

Many who tuned into Monday Night Football last week saw Rams tight end Tyler Higbee get four of Baker Mayfield’s first eight pass targets, which he turned into three catches for 19 yards. He would later add an eight-yard touchdown. 

However, even with the early looks, Mayfield was under a ton of pressure and took two sacks on 10 dropbacks. The Rams’ offensive line is being held together by duct tape currently, with six players on the IR and another three injured. They also lost starting center Brian Allen in Week 15.

Due to the lack of blocking talent, Higbee was asked to stay in and block on 35% of his plays last week (second-highest mark of the season) and will likely be asked to do the same with a worst offensive line playing against an elite defense in Denver. 

This is already a passing game I want nothing to do with, and the recency bias on Higbee might be giving us some value with those just looking at box scores. Higbee closed with a receiving total of 26.5 last week and after finishing with 27 yards with plenty of looks early before helping out vs. the pass rush, this Under is good to 23.5 or higher. 

Tyler Higbee Prop: Under 30.5 receiving yards (-120)

Game script discount

The game script is certainly not in James Conner’s favor this week as a touchdown underdog, vs. Tampa Bay, but with Trace McSorley making his first NFL start, it’s tough to see Kliff Kingsbury abandoning the run altogether on Sunday.

The Bucs’ offense is also one that is allergic to stacking double-digit leads this season, meaning there is some value in Conner’s rushing total of 67.5 yards. 

The Arizona running back has seen an astounding 90% of the running-back carries since Week 10 and is averaging 18.2 carries per game over that stretch. He’s gaining a decent 4.2 yards per carry and that includes three games vs. Top-10 defenses in EPA/rush.

Now Conner faces a Tampa defense that allows 120 rushing yards per game (30 more than last season) and will also be missing run cog Vita Vea who has been out since Week 14. 

Around the league, we’ve seen play callers help out young and inexperienced quarterbacks by running the ball above expectations (see Atlanta last week) and I’d be very surprised if Conner wasn’t getting carries in the fourth quarter Sunday night.

This is the exact rushing total that he saw last week vs. the Broncos, and getting it at the same number is a steal, especially with the misleading price adjustment because of the projected game script.

James Conner Prop: Over 67.5 rushing yards (-114)

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Chasing history

Patrick Mahomes has passed for at least 300 yards in eight of his last nine games, is the current betting favorite for MVP, and needs to average 327 yards per game over the next three weeks to break the single-season passing yardage record. 

Now, he’ll face a Seattle defense that ranks 27th in EPA/dropback without a starting safety, in Ryan Neal, who ranks as the No.1 coverage safety in football, per Pro Football Focus.

All those are great angles as to why to play the Over on Mahomes’ passing total of 295.5, but another big reason is the Kansas City defense.

The Chiefs’ ball-stoppers rank 25th in weighted DVOA on the season and have given up 52 points over the last two weeks vs. two of the worst offenses in football in Houston and Denver. 

Some offensive turnovers of late have also helped keep the game script neutral-to-negative for Mahomes, however, facing a Seattle team that averages the third-most points per game on the road this season (28.3 per game) should keep this Kansas City offense in attack mode.

The loss of Neal for the Seahawks is a massive blow to an already bad pass defense. Seattle will now be without arguably its best coverage defensive back, who is 6-foot-3 and allowed a 77 passer rating when targeted. He also sits third on the team in tackles.

This could mean Mahomes taking more shots at the top of this defense or even another big game from running back Jerick McKinnon, who has 15 catches for 182 yards over the last two games. I’m waiting patiently to hammer his receiving yard prop on any number below 25, but the Mahomes Over 295.5 offers just as much value in my opinion. 

Some books are north of 300 yards and I’d still take the Over up to 305 with an offense that passes more at home than 30 other teams at 62.3%. The weather is also looking very decent at game time, with minimal winds that will die down as the game goes on. 

Patrick Mahomes Prop: Over 295.5 passing yards (-110)

Fly vs Philly

With Jalen Hurts not playing Saturday, the Cowboys moved from -2 to as long as -6, which could mean some positive game script and more running for the Cowboys, who are running at 9% over expected on the season. Even last week in a great passing matchup, Dallas ran the ball 41 times to just 30 passes. 

Since Ezekiel Elliott returned to the lineup in Week 11, he and Tony Pollard have split carries evenly, but Pollard has been the more explosive back. On the season, no running back has a better rate of busting rushes of 10-plus yards (one every 5.7 carries) and 20-plus yard carries (one every 19.6 carries).

Pollard has had a carry of at least 15 yards in 10 of his 14 games this year and that includes five games of 10 or fewer carries. He’s topped his longest rush attempt prop in eight of his last nine games and gets a solid matchup vs. a Philadelphia team that ranks 29th in success rate against the run and has allowed the fourth-most explosive rushes on the season.

Philadelphia has allowed at least one run of 15-plus yards in 12 of its 14 games this year and has struggled to stop big gains on the ground even more of late. Over the last seven weeks, the Eagles have surrendered at least one 20-yard carry five times including back-to-back weeks of giving up a 30-yard carry. 

With the Cowboys running more than expected and Pollard getting half of the carries in a good matchup vs. a generous Eagles run defense, Pollard busting a 16-yard carry has a better than 50/50 probability in my assessment. Being indoors is also a big help here.

Tony Pollard Prop: Longest rush Over 15.5 yards (-105)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Carr troubles

There has been a ton of weather talk this week but the Las Vegas vs. Pittsburgh game might be flying under the radar in terms of having poor passing conditions.

With everyone looking at the Saints vs. Browns game and epic winds, Acrisure Stadium (Heinz Field) will see winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. We could also possibly see some snow with the sub-zero temps.

Early @raiders vs. @steelers forecast on Christmas Eve (Saturday night 8:15 PM Pittsburgh time):

Gametime temperature at 9°, gusts 30-35 MPH.

Wind chill as low as -15°.

No precipitation expected during gametime.

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— Ted Pretty (@tedpretty) December 20, 2022

Derek Carr’s passing total sits at 225.5 which is just nine yards shorter than his indoor game last week vs. the Patriots. The Pittsburgh pass defense isn’t as stout as the Patriots’ but over the last three games, it’s allowing just 147 passing yards per game and only Joe Burrow has thrown for over 225 yards in its last six games. 

Safety Terrell Edmunds also looks more probable than doubtful despite some DNPs at practice this week.

The Steelers haven’t seen a great run of quarterbacks of late but getting Carr outdoors in very unfamiliar conditions is also favoring the Under here. 

Vegas has been leaning on the run of late with a run percentage of 49.7% over the last three games which is a big change from their 40% rate just three weeks ago. Josh McDaniels has no problems feeding Josh Jacobs all day as the running back has at least 21 carries in six straight games. 

Derek Carr Prop: Under 225.5 passing yards (-125)

JJ needs 150 this week

Looking at a warm indoor game, bettors should see a little more offense in Minnesota on Saturday with Justin Jefferson chasing the single-season receiving record set by Calvin Johnson who did so in just 16 games. Despite the extra game, Jefferson needs to average 114 receiving yards per game over the final three contests of the season to pass the mark.

The tough part of hitting this milestone will be in Weeks 17 and 18 as both of those games will be outdoors in Green Bay and Chicago, putting even more emphasis on a good showing this Saturday at home.

Over his three years in the league, the Minnesota wide receiver is averaging 110 receiving yards per game indoors compared to 83 in an outdoor setting. He’ll also see a defense without its best corner in Adoree’ Jackson who has been out since Week 12 and has been ruled out for Saturday. 

Jefferson is still one of only three WRs with a 30% target share and also leads the league in receptions of 40+ yards with six and 30-+ yards with 14 — seven coming over his last six games. 

With history on the line and two tough matchups on deck in the coming weeks, we could see a big performance Saturday. He’s 8-2 to the Over in his last 10 and gets a receiving total this week eight yards shorter than Week 15. 

Justin Jefferson Prop: Over 88.5 receiving yards (-115) 

Say no to Jones

Although Gillette Stadium won’t have the worst passing conditions of the weekend, 15 mph winds with gusts up to 35 mph won’t help a quarterback who just posted a -20% CPOE in Week 15 in an indoor game vs. the 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense. 

Mac Jones was awful last week vs. a bad Las Vegas pass defense and now has to turn things around against a Cincy defense that’s allowing just 8.0 points per second half on the season.

There is also a chance that Jones doesn’t even play the full game with Bailey Zappe as a possible replacement. Bill Belichick hasn’t been exactly supportive of his starting QB going forward and with Jones passing for just 112 yards indoors last week, it’s hard to have any confidence in his Over 221.5 passing yards this week with worse game conditions and a better defense. 

Bill Belichick did not answer directly when asked if Mac Jones will start final three games. https://t.co/slXk4EMiPg

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) December 22, 2022

Jones’ passing total was 230.5 yards just two weeks ago in Arizona and nine yards doesn’t seem like enough of an adjustment considering the matchup, setting, and possible benching.

Mac Jones Prop: Under 221.5 passing yards (-113)

Season to date: 109-106, +1.70 units (Risking 1 unit per play)

NFL Week 16 prop betting card

• Higbee Under 30.5 receiving yards (-120)
• Conner Over 67.5 rushing yards (-114)
• Mahomes Over 299.5 passing yards (-110)
• Pollard longest rush Over 15.5 yards (-105)
• Carr Under 225.5 passing yards (-125)
• Jefferson Over 88.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Jones Under 221.5 passing yards (-113)

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