The Bengals upset the Ravens with Joe Burrow back under center last week, and in Week 14, they'll face the Bills in a cold-weather game in Buffalo.
The Bills been awful against the run, and my NFL picks expect Chase Brown to take advantage of that.
The Bengals running back headlines my best free NFL player props for Week 14.
NFL Week 14 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Chase Brown |
Over 51.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Bijan Robinson |
Over 35.5 receiving yards | -114 |
 Zay Flowers |
Over 55.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 14
Prop pick: Chase Brown Over 51.5 rushing yards
After getting off to a terrible start this year, Chase Brown has picked up steam.
Through the first six games of the season, Brown rushed for just 202 yards on a pathetic 2.7 yards per carry. But in the last six games, he's rushed for 502 yards on 5.8 yards per attempt.
In Week 14, Brown and the Cincinnati Bengals face a Buffalo Bills squad that has one glaring flaw; an inability to stop the run. With a nickel-base defense and a line that can't get a push up front, Buffalo is 30th in the league in defensive rush EPA and DVOA.
The Bills are surrendering 141.3 rushing yards per game and, with Cincinnati getting back QB Joe Burrow last week, they'll be focused on containing the pass. Brown has rushed for more than 70 yards in five of his last six games, and this number looks way too low here.
Prop pick: Bijan Robinson Over 34.5 receiving yards
Bijan Robinson has rushed for 995 yards, and he's also a weapon in the passing game, where he has racked up 54 catches for 594 yards. The Pro Bowl RB will have a tough time finding running room on Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks, but should have success through the air.
The Seahawks have an elite defense, especially against the run, but are vulnerable against pass-catching backs. They are 29th in the NFL in receiving yards allowed per game (39.7) to opposing RBs while allowing the second-most receptions per game (5.7) to the position.
The Atlanta Falcons are also 7.5-point home underdogs, which suggests a negative game script with a high-passing volume. Robinson has logged more than 35 receiving yards in nine of 12 games this year, and he should eclipse that number again.
Prop pick: Zay Flowers Over 55.5 receiving yards
Baltimore Ravens wideout Zay Flowers is coming off an ugly game where he reeled in just two of seven targets for six yards. That said, he had racked up more than 55.5 receiving yards in seven of his previous eight games.
Flowers is Baltimore's best receiver by a wide margin, and he'll be in a good spot to bounce back against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that's been a passing funnel. Pittsburgh is 25th in the NFL in opponent passing rate (59.6%) while allowing a league-high 171.8 receiving yards per game to wide receivers.
It's also worth noting that it's expected to be a mild December day in Baltimore with temperatures around 42 degrees and barely a breeze.
NFL Week 14 prop betting card
- Brown o51.5 rush yards (-114)
- Robinson o34.5 rec yards (-114)
- Flowers o55.5 rec yards (-114)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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